YoungBman

【郎咸平】别学美国征房产税

2010-08-29T13:38:00.000-07:00

自2010年中旬以来，为了遏制房价上涨，我国政府密集出台了一系列地产调控政策。虽然房价上涨的势头得到部分遏制，但是全国房地产市场陷入僵持。在这个时候，社会各方关注的目光逐渐集中到了税收上，在过去几个月中，各种消息层出不穷，北京、上海、深圳、重庆等地产改革前沿城市先后爆出房产税征收草案的传闻。然而迄今为止，国家对此并未明确表态。

　　西方许多国家都已经开征房产税，如美国50个州都已开征房产税，税率一般为1%到3%。理论上来说，住房价格上涨意味着资产价值增加，个人税款也因此增加。根据美国国家统计局数据，从2000年到2007年，美国的个人收入增长了28%，中等价位房的房价增长了48%，而美国房产税的同期增幅是62%。

　　美国政府拿走房产税之后把每一分花的钱都在百姓身上、教育上、治安上，他们当然愿意交。因为百姓自己不可能有这个钱去改善环境的，政府必须集合所有人的房产税的钱大面积的改善治安、学校、环境，所以你房子自然增值，因此对于美国老百姓而言，每一年只出1.38%的钱却可以享受到这么多的福利，所以我门可以看出美国房产税是为了藏富于民，为了让房价升值。

　　我们为什么不能征收房产税？

　　在讲这个问题之前，先看一看我的火山理论，了解一下房产税会造成什么样的冲击。首先，熔浆是两个原因造成的，第一个就是企业家的投资经营环境恶化，大量的企业资金进入房地产；第二个就是通货膨胀，使得大量逃避通货膨胀的避险资金进入房地产形成岩浆。而岩浆快要爆发的时候，政府插下两根导管，第一根导管就是地产商和地方政府的垄断，老百姓是自己不能卖地建房的，一定要向地产商买，所以人为的形成了垄断；第二根导管是目前各级政府，除了重庆等地以外，没有大规模的兴建廉租屋经济适用房，把全国老百姓都推向商品屋的结果就是房价水涨船高。两根导管一插下去的结果，就是火山岩浆顺势爆发，房价一发不可收拾。过去为什么调控失败呢？那就是政府把一个大石头直接压在火山口堵住，而这个大石头是经受不了火山岩浆的喷发的，这就是为什么过去的调控只有短期的效果。那么你知道房产税是什么结果吗？房产税就等于从火星上面拿来一块天外来石，直接压在火山口，这种宇宙上面的岩石特别抗高温，一压上去的结果还真能压住了，但是，我警告各位朋友，过去压上大石头压不住火山熔岩那还好，最多就是石头熔化了，火山熔岩继续爆发，房价继续涨。但是大家有没有想过拿一个房产税压住火山口，长期压住了，那么高温的火山熔岩就会从地壳的最薄弱环节再次爆发，就是说恶性通货膨胀立刻爆发、中国经济进一步衰退！千万不要一冲动就听从那些宠物经济学家的意见，因为他们根本没有搞懂房产税的本质，人家美国是在创造财富、藏富于民，我们可好，用来打压房价，完全搞错了！一旦搞错了，我们的经济就要承受不可想象的结局。

　　希望在哪里

　　房地产市场到底还有没有希望呢？我认为希望可能还是存在的，比如说重庆模式，只要重庆模式推出就可以解决火山问题，它可以斩断第二根导管、建构四千万平方米的廉租屋、经济适用房，同时透过引进大量的外资，包括惠普、富士康、思科等等，稀释掉火山岩浆。大量外资进来之后必然改善了投资经营环境，再加上减少税负、增加融资的管道，自然可以消化岩浆。所以目前政府的决策有两个，第一个房产税，第二个重庆模式。所以很多人问我未来股价如何走势、楼价如何走势？我不知道。目前就这两个不同的力量在博弈，只要房产税占了上风，将来前途一片黯淡，如果重庆模式占了上风，将来中国地产可以慢慢步入正轨。

　　香港政府在这方面的做法是，保证大家有房住、政府负担50%的住房。1999年，政府所提供的廉租和经济适用房高达49%，2004年51%，09年53%，过半数的房屋都是政府所提供的。我们这边有吗？连重庆市也不过是20%！其他地方更不用讲了。那么，香港什么样的人能够享受国家补贴呢？月收入6万港币以上者，必须向私人开发商购买商品屋；月薪在2.6-6万之间的，政府提供低息贷款，优惠价供应住宅；月收入在1.1-2.6万之间的，以低于市场价30%-45%的价格出售房屋；月收入低于1.1万者，廉价出租屋。严格执行的结果使得香港50%的老百姓都有政府的补贴，所以香港人没有仇富心理的。

　　新加坡截止2009年底，政府总共建设了99.2万套经济适用房，保证85%的老百姓的住房，而且他不是根据成本核算的，而是根据收入核算的，保证老百姓6年的收入可以买一栋房。有15%的人住商品屋，每平米价格在4万到5万人民币，高地价、高房价保证用地的效率维持低税率。新加坡还有一点比香港好，就是香港的工业用地每平米高达8万港元，全世界最贵，所以它的制造业全线崩溃，只能做服务业金融业，而新加坡通过政府的绝对垄断，提供绝对低的价格，80%的工业用地都集中在政府工贸部所设立的裕廊集团内，出租价格每平米200-280元港币。所以新加坡有非常繁荣的制造业，这都是政府的规划。新加坡、香港、重庆目前都是采取双轨制，允许商品屋市场涨价，无所谓，但是一定要推出大量的经济适用房和廉租屋！

　　我认为，我们应该学习香港、新加坡、重庆，采取双轨制，不要房产税，允许商品屋随便涨，如果政府多抽税也有没问题，大规模利用这些税收大量构建经济适用房和廉租屋！这样我们的未来才有希望！

M0, M1, M2

2010-08-19T07:13:00.001-07:00

货币供应量  Money Supply                             货币和准货币（M2）  Money & Quasi-money   货币（M1）            Money   流通中现金（M0）        Currency in Circulation  M0=流通中现金   M1= M0+企事业单位活期存款   M2= M1+企事单位定期存款+居民储存款+其它存款    市场货币供应量：M0、M1、M2       货币供应量是指某一时点一个国家流通中的货币量。它是分布在居民人中、信贷系统、企事业单位金库中的货币总计。货币供应量是影响宏观经济的一个重要变量。它同收入、消费、投资、价格、国际收支都有着极为重要的关系，是国家制定宏观经济政策的一个重要依据。社会总需求与总供给的均衡，从需求方面看，主要决定于货币供应量是否适度。   现金（M0）：就是一定时点上单位和个人所持有的现金，它随时可以直接作为流通手段和支付手段进入流通领域，是最直接和最活跃的购买力。   狭义货币供应量（M1）：就是现金（M0）加上企事业单位的活期存款。活期存款可以随时签发支票和变现，所以它类同现金具有较强的流动性。   广义货币供应量（M2）：是指M1加上准货币。其中准货币包括企事业单位的定期存款、居民储蓄存款及其他存款。准货币在一定条件下也可以直接变为现金。   M0、M1、M2之间的联系和区别可以从以下关系中体现：   M0=流通中现金   M1= M0+企事业单位活期存款   M2= M1+企事单位定期存款+居民储存款+其它存款  股市的最大规律就是很难把握其规律，所有的关于股市预测的学问都非“放之四海皆准”。但若因此否认股市规律的存在，难免陷入“不可知”论。起码有一个现象在中国股市至少重复出现了三次，时间跨度十余年，这姑且可以算作一个“规律”吧。     这个规律是：股指涨跌与货币供应量之间有高度的相关性，每当M2与M1的差超过5个百分点时，指数即开始走入牛市，而当差逐渐缩小，股市就开始见顶，尤其当M1达到22%左右高度时，指数就开始下跌。     例如：上世纪90年代的经济周期始于1992年，1995年后经济开始步入调整。在此过程中，M1和M2的增长速度的差距开始收窄，而后又扩大。1992年二者之间的差距是6个百分点，1993年收窄为1个百分点，1994年和1995年，M1的增长速度明显放缓，使M1和M2的差距开始拉大，1994年和1995年M2比M1分别快7.7个百分点和12.8个百分点。随后是1996年之后的大牛市，股票指数连续2年上涨，上证综指从1996年初的500点上涨到1997年5月份的1500点，涨幅近2倍。     分析中国的股票指数，不能不提“5.19”行情。在1999年“5.19”行情之前，M1和M2同样出现了这样的背离走势，最大差距达到6个百分点。“5.19”行情之所以在十年后的今天仍然被市场津津乐道，其重要原因是上证综指短时间内涨幅巨大。     有意思的是，根据货币供应量数据的变化，不仅可以预测股指的低点，而且可以预测其高点。当M1增长速度超过22%以后，股指一般会步入熊市。2007年12月11日，笔者撰文指出：M1已经在20%之上持续了数月时间，储蓄搬家的情况即将减缓，股市的持续上涨已经难以为继。10月份银行存款减少约4500亿元和上证综指的6124点将一起成为一个新的历史纪录。     转眼来到2008年下半年，当上证综指在2008年底跌到1700点附近时，货币供应量指标M2和M1再次出现较大的背离，当时的M2比M1高10多个百分点。之后“规律”再次被应验，截止到2009年5月底，上证综指反弹了40%多。     为什么我国股市运行呈现这样的“规律”？背后的制度性基础更值得我们关注。一般而论，当M2增长速度超过M1时，经济增长处在走下坡路的状态，经济活跃程度在下降。此时，上市公司的盈利能力应该是下降的，1996年、1999年、2005年都是如此。在这样的背景下为什么会出现股指大幅度上涨呢？原因在于政策的干预，每当经济出现疲态，政府即会出现放松货币，多余的货币首先选择进入股市，推动股市大幅度上涨。     正因如此，在中国股市还存在其他一些比较“另类”的逻辑。并且在中国股市演进的过程中，随着市场结构的变化，一些规律在减弱以及消失，另一些新的规律取而代之。面对这种情况，投资者何以自处？如果以自身的变化来追逐市场的变化，就会陷入其中不能自拔。在这方面，尽管中美股市有着很大的差异，但巴菲特的做法仍然可以给我们很大启示。巴菲特以坚持价值投资的不变来应万变，这看起来不够聪明，但却是真正的智慧。一个人内心如果没有一些不可改变的价值准则，就无法把握自己，更何谈把握股市。庄子的道家学说是一种形而上学，“外化内不化”的核心思想为中国人指明了人格成熟不可或缺的修炼目标。股市作为人生实践的一个场所自然也不例外。

Chinese IPO May Be Largest in History

2010-07-05T23:54:00.000-07:00

By DINNY MCMAHON And ALISON TUDOR

Agricultural Bank of China's massive initial public offering, to be priced as early as Tuesday, is testing global investors' faith in China's fast-growing economy amid global financial turmoil.

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If the initial public offering of Agricultural Bank of China hits the high end of its expected $23 billion range, it will become the largest IPO in history. The sale is viewed as proxy for the country's future economic growth.

If it hits the high end of its expected $23 billion range, AgBank would raise more money than any other company in history, amid a string of major stock offerings from developing markets this year.

With nearly 24,000 branches and the largest customer base in the world, AgBank and its owner, the Chinese government, are betting investors see it as a proxy for the country's future economic growth.

However, some of their ambitions for the IPO have already been curbed by concerns among some investors about the outlook for China's growth, as well as weakness in share prices globally and questions about AgBank's strategy. This week's IPO will fall well below the high end of the target range of $20 billion to $30 billion that AgBank was pushing just weeks ago. The shares are expected to price at a valuation below several of its large Chinese peers. Shares will be listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai.

Still, as the share sale ended Monday, demand for AgBank's shares appeared relatively strong, showing that many investors continue to view China as an engine of the global economy, and highlighting the dominance of developing countries in global capital markets as Europe and the U.S. continue to wobble.

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"The fact that the Chinese government is able to sell a vast amount of shares in what is clearly not its highest-quality bank, during volatile markets, shows how the baton is passing from the developed to emerging markets," says Julian Mayo, who helps oversee $3 billion at Charlemagne Capital in London.

The world's largest IPOs this year have come from Asian and developing countries. The top 10 offerings of the year include firms from China, Russia, Poland and India, none from the U.S. and only one from Western Europe, in Spain.

Linda Csellak, head of Asia Pacific equities for MFC Global Investment Management in Hong Kong, says the strong demand flow of IPOs in Asia is likely to continue. "In the U.S. they don't have the confidence that there is out here," she says.

Most economists expect China's growth to slow this year, due in part to government measures in recent months to rein in zooming property prices and head off a dangerous bubble. China's benchmark stock index has lost nearly 28% this year, making it one of the world's worst performing markets.

On Saturday Premier Wen Jiabao said the country's economic policies "face increasing dilemmas" as the impact of the global financial crisis is more serious than expected. But he reiterated that China won't hold back its steps to restructure the economy for long-term growth.

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Breakdown of cornerstone investments for Hong Kong-share IPO of Agricultural Bank of China

To investors, AgBank pitches itself as a modern, commercial lender offering a play on China's fast-growing economy, especially its newly developing inland regions. In the roadshow for its IPO, AgBank has taken pains to tell investors that its branches don't lend money to China's poor farmers.

Yet unlike China's other major banks, AgBank has an explicit mandate from the government to lift incomes and prospects for China's poorer, rural citizens and narrow the wealth gap between countryside and city that has become a source of resentment against Communist Party rule.

Analysts say AgBank is likely to continue to struggle to reconcile those disparate identities long after its IPO is over.

"This is the major tension after the IPO," says Yuk-shing Cheng, a professor at the Hong Kong Baptist University. "Whenever there is a problem in rural areas the government will want to use AgBank as a conduit to funnel credit there."

AgBank's identity confusion also illustrates a broader issue for China's lenders. The government has tried to revamp them over the past two decades from policy instruments into commercial institutions, but they are still called on to support state policy. Last year, for example, they nearly doubled new lending, to $1.4 trillion, to support government stimulus efforts. That has led to fears of a rebound of bad loans.

In AgBank's case, the obligations are particularly explicit. In 2007, when China's leadership formally announced plans to retool the lender to prepare it for an IPO, it also said AgBank would be required to support the agricultural sector as a precondition for going public.

"Of all of China's major banks, AgBank's social obligations are the greatest," Chairman Xiang Junbo said in a November interview.

Last month, Financial News, a newspaper published by China's central bank, ran a commentary saying AgBank needs to play a more active role supporting farmers after its IPO. AgBank "needs to strengthen its village loan distribution and inject more people and resources," it said.

China's cabinet decided in 2002 that the four major state banks would become public companies. The three others listed in 2005 and 2006. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the nation's largest lender, raised a record $22 billion in 2006. AgBank was held back, as concern in Beijing over widening income disparities fueled debate over its proper role.

Today, around 30% of its loans go to areas outside of China's major cities, in areas loosely categorized as "rural" but which also include towns boasting populations in the tens of thousands.

Bankers on the IPO say the institutional portion of the Hong Kong offering was oversubscribed within the first couple of hours of the shares going on sale, and one banker said the smaller retail portion was fully subscribed as well. The demand is "striking" says Motoshi Nagai, Senior Portfolio Manager at Tokyo-headquartered asset manager DIAM Co.

Already, several large institutions have agreed to take sizable stakes in AgBank as "cornerstone" investors, including two Middle Eastern sovereign-wealth funds, Dutch financial-services firm Rabobank, and U.S. agribusiness group Archer Daniels Midland Co. and one of Hong Kong's wealthiest individuals.

"Agricultural Bank has a good branch network in the countryside, and we all know the next driver of the Chinese economy will be urbanization," said Mr. Nagai, who is based in Hong Kong.

Ahead of the Bell. Disappointing!

2010-07-01T04:18:00.000-07:00

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures declined Thursday, ahead of the release of key U.S. manufacturing data as a similar Chinese gauge proved disappointing.

S&P 500 futures fell 3.4 points to 1,023.20 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 7.25 points to 1,730.70. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 25 points.

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U.S. stocks Wednesday finished a disappointing quarter with a disappointing session, hurt by worries about domestic job growth as well as European credit jitters following a weaker-than-forecast private sector employment report from ADP and a Moody's warning on Spain. The S&P 500 dropped 11.9% in the second quarter, the worst quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2008.

Weekly jobless claims, the June Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index and May pending home sales data are due for release Thursday. Automakers including Ford (F 10.20, +0.12, +1.19%) will be releasing June sales throughout the day.

Philip Isherwood, a strategist at U.K. broker Evolution Securities, said equity markets already discount a poor ISM reading, and a drop below 50 for ISM new orders. The ISM data is due at 10 a.m. Eastern. Economists polled by MarketWatch expect the headline reading to fall to 59.0% from 59.7%.

"Given the poor and fragile sentiment at present, it is perfectly possible that the market will react negatively to any drop in the ISM New Orders series - but this looks like a case of confirmation, and also double-counting," he said in a note to clients.

Chinese manufacturing data released Thursday dropped in June, indicating slowing growth to stoke further fears about the world's number-three economy.

However, the Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey of business sentiment showed large manufacturer sentiment turned positive for the first time in two years.

Also overseas, a Spanish bond auction of 3.5 billion euros of five-year notes went smoothly just hours after the warning from Moody's.

Yahoo (YHOO 13.84, -0.20, -1.42%) may be active after the online search provider said its board may buy back up to $3 billion of shares.

Smith & Wesson (SWHC 4.09, -0.07, -1.68%) also may be active as the gun maker reported a 64% profit drop but also said current year sales may top analyst projections. Its stock was helped earlier in the week by a U.S. Supreme Court decision saying the right to bear arms is a fundamental right.

In late morning trade, the Stoxx Europe 600 slid 1.5%, and in Asia, the Nikkei 225 dropped 2% to finish at its worst level since late November.

Crude oil futures slumped over $1 a barrel, and gold futures dropped nearly $5 an ounce.

The euro (CUR_EURUSD 1.2328, +0.0095, +0.7766%) climbed 0.5% to $1.2294, helped by the Spanish auction.

Developping Story: U.S Payroll Directed the Market to South

2010-06-30T06:45:00.000-07:00

News:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-rise-on-europe-bank-relief-2010-06-30

YoungBman's Voice:

It's bad, worse than expectation.

Moreover, would Obama's administration pressure China's government further to appreciate RMB?

Free Data Source. Watch Out!

2010-06-30T01:26:00.000-07:00

I am looking a correct data set. Believe or not, it is hard to find 100% accuracy for public-traded stocks on major popular websites. Why? They are all free!!!! Even for the simple calculated data, such as 52-week Low/High, you should be very careful to choose your web-based finance partner.

Let's take an example:
Aegon NL0000303709, listed on EuroNext Amsterdam Exchange

You can view and download the historical prices through the link below. We should treat EuroNext data as official values.
http://www.euronext.com/trader/summarizedmarket/stocks-2593-EN-NL0000303709.html?selectedMep=2

The 52-week Low/High is 3.64 - 6.263

Now let's go to Google Finace:

The 52-week Low/High is 4.41 - 4.61

How about Morningstar.nl:

The 52-week Low/High is 3.01 - 335.00
Finanly, someone got correct data! It's Yahoo! Finance!

The 52-week Low/High is 3.64 - 6.26

I wanted to have a check on Bloomberg, but could not find the stock information.

Usually for those paid service, such as the software provided by your borker, should be trustworthy. However for those free service, watch out!

RMB

2010-06-21T03:08:00.000-07:00

一篇关于人民币升值不错的文章，我还觉得写这篇文章的人绝非一般学者。希望看过的朋友也发表一点评论，表明一下作为一个中国人的态度。尽管这气候小点，表态的人多了，重视度就上去了。想过好日子,不想破产的中国人，都好好读一次这篇文章吧！股市你挣了钱，楼市你挣了钱。请先不要乐，你只是在为自己挖坑。说白了，你就是你的掘墓人。有钱，大家谁不盼望，但，钱是相对的，也是最靠不住的。东南亚金融危机时，有多少人哭着喊着卖出本币，兑换美元。所以你今天挣了钱，你只不过是在享受***********带来的快感。还是想想如何配合国家，做一些保住胜利果实的事情吧. 美金融战争早已开打，中国处境艰难！现在很多国人都很关心人民币升值这个话题，但又不了解美国迫使人民币升值的真正意图何在，现在鄙人就此浅薄的发表一下我的个人看法！相信大家对80年代的“日本经济衰退”和90年代的“亚洲金融风暴”及“香港的香港金融保卫战”吧！也许有人会说那是国际投机集团“美国索罗斯财团”搞的，但是，你就没有想过它背后难道就没有美国go-vern-ment的支持了吗？下面，我仔细分析一下这些事件的前因后果你就会明白了。从1980开始的，特别在1990年至1995年，第一名的美国和第二名的日本之间的GDP差距是多少？日本GDP超过美国GDP的一半！这也是目前为止唯一一次其它国家和美国的经济差距缩小到一半的程度。日本人在欢呼：只要超过美国的GDP，日本就可以恢复“正常国家”了！美国人没有吭声。按理说，日本还是美国的盟国，其经济也是美国扶持起来的，美国也没有分裂日本的必要（要分裂，二战时就分裂了，也不用等到80-90年代）。美国也不可能对盟国日本使用“颠覆性煽动”，眼看着美国是阻挡不了日本经济的发展前景的了！世界各国都在兴奋的期待着日本GDP超过美国GDP的那个“历史性时刻”！日本企业更加疯狂，美国经济的象征——洛克菲勒广场被日本人买下了！美国的精神象征——好莱坞被日本人买了！美国人民的心情一下子掉到了谷底。“世界第一”就快保不住了！美国人民的荣耀感在急剧下滑，民间开始蔓延仇日情绪。 1980年，日本的GDP就快到美国的一半了。有一件事情在1985年发生了，1985年美国拉拢其它五国（7国集团）逼迫日本签署了。以“行政手段”迫使日元升值。其实的一个中心思想就是日本央行不得“过度”干预外汇市场。日本当时手头有充足的美元外汇储备，如果日本央行干预，日元升不了值。可惜呀，日本是被去了势的太监。美国驻军、政治渗透、连宪法都是美国人帮它度身定做的，想不签广场协议都不可能。

日本最后的结局大家也知道了。1985年9月的广场协议至1988年初.美国要求日元升值。根据协议推高日元，日元兑美元的汇率从协议前的1美元兑240日元上升到1986年5月时的1美元兑160日元。由于美国里根go-vern-ment坚持认为日元升值仍不到位，通过口头干预等形式继续推高日元。这样，到1988年年初，日元兑美元的汇率进一步上升到1美元兑120日元,正好比广场协议之前的汇率上升了一倍。美国人满足了吗？没有。接着看下去，从1993年2月至1995年4月，当时克林顿go-vern-ment的财政部长贝茨明确表示，为了纠正日美贸易的不均衡，需要有20%左右的日元升值，当时的日元汇率大致在1美元兑120日元左右，所以，根据美国go-vern-ment的诱导目标，日元行情很快上升到1美元兑100日元。以后，由于克林顿go-vern-ment对以汽车摩擦为核心的日美经济关系采取比较严厉的态度。到了1995年4月，日元的汇率急升至1美元兑79日元，创下历史最高记录。日元升值的后果是什么？洛克菲勒广场重新回到了美国人手中，通用汽车在这个广场的一卖一买中净赚4亿美元！日资在艰难度日中大规模亏本退出美国。美国人民胜利了！成功的击退了日本的经济进攻！我们可以从事例中看看1995年之后，日本和美国的GDP之比重新拉开了距离，而且越来越大！可能有些网友还是没有明白，日元升值怎么啦？跟我们的谈论有什么关系？日元升值，就是美国对日本的一次经济阻击战！成功的把日本20多年的发展财富大转移到了美国去了。下面我给个例子大家就清楚了。假设我是美国财团，我当然知道1985会发生什么，假设我在1983年吧，我用100亿美元兑换成24000亿日元，进入日本市场，购买日本股票和房地产，日本经济的蓬勃导致股市和房地产发疯一样的上涨，1985年广场协议签订，日元开始升值，到1988年初，股市和房地产假设我已经赚到了一倍（5年才翻一倍是最低假设了），那就是48000亿日元。这时，日元升值到1:120。我把日本的房地产和股票在一年中抛售完，然后兑换回美元，那么，就是400亿美元！在5年时间中，我净赚300亿美元！（还是最低假设）。那么日本呢？突然离开的巨额外资就导致了日本经济的崩溃！经济学用词叫“泡沫经济破灭”。这就是日本常说的：“失去的十年”。而我连本带利的400亿美元回到美国，你想一想，美国经济能不旺盛吗？！！日本“失去的十年”，却正是美国“兴旺的十年”！看看我的上表就知道了。　我说的只是美国财团中的一个，其它财团呢？嘿嘿，而且我的假设还只是到1988年，如果是到1995年，日元升值到1:79，你我能想象美国在这场经济战争的胜利中，到底从日本刮走了多少财富？美国赚够了，日元现在又重新回到了1:140的位置上，美元的坚挺依然和30年前一样！美元暂时性的贬值，并没有损害到美元的国际地位。这场美日的经济战争，以美国完胜而告终！！美国人玩上瘾了。1998年，同样的手法在东南亚四小龙四小虎身上又来了一次，这就是亚洲金融风暴！唯一不同的，这次不需要广场协议了。因为亚洲这些小虎小龙的外汇储备们直接阻击就可以大获全胜！但是，还是没有战胜财大气粗、军事强盛、奉行霸权主义的美国，结局大家也看到了，东南亚货币在先升后跌中，经济发展的成果被美国抢掠一空！！唯一市场硬挺住了索罗斯的进攻而没有经济崩溃的就只有回归后的香港，保住了香港几十年的发展果实。当时索罗斯发动世界舆论（包括香港舆论），大肆攻击香港go-vern-ment（中国go-vern-ment）“行政干预市场”，违反市场经济规则、没有民主自由，要是当时中国屈服于世界的舆论压力而不运用“宏观调控”进行入市干预，那将酿成大祸，又不知道要有多少国人向当年的日本那样因破产而跳楼自杀了！当时的曾荫权后来说过：“决定go-vern-ment入市干预的前一晚，我坐在床头哭了，不是为我自己，而是怕这个决定如果错误了，害了香港，我怎么向中央go-vern-ment向市民们交代。”大家现在知道为什么美国一再要求他国“新闻自由”、“市场经济”、“民主人权”是建立在自己利益的基础上了吧，知道我国的“宏观调控”政策的正确性和优势所在了吧。美国停手了吗？没有，因为我过综合势力的增长国力的增强威胁到了美国的根本利益和“世界第一”的权威，近来“中国公开支持因儿子丑闻陷入困境的安南，指责美国故意借题发挥进行人生攻击。”就是最好的证明。所以美国心里就不痛快了，就要整人了，现在强迫人民币升值就是消弱中国的第一步，各位明白了吗？知道为什么中央go-vern-ment突然狂力打压上海和北京的房地产市场？知道为什么中国股市那么惨了吗？央行行长周小川在3月还是4月曾说了一件事情：“有一个40亿美元的外资在上海炒房地产，已经退出中国了这样的外资，不要也罢！”明白了吗？中国股市是一个弱势股市，很容易被美国财团利用。中央不可能放松对股市的控制，否则中国经济将会在外资的攻击中崩溃！前段时间，也就是今年的12月初又有一个240亿美元的外资财团撤离中国上海。现在，大家对国家的宏观调控的优势有所理解了吧，知道了国家出台那么多针对房地产的政策是多么的明智和及时了吧！现在各位知道为什么中国要实行国家外汇管制、汇率控制、打压房地产、控制股市、知道为什么中国要保持巨额外汇储备，为什么最近央行又出台了新的房地产贷款规定，为什么中国go-vern-ment一直要求进出口贸易平衡，为什么要扩展东南亚贸易市场和欧盟市场，为什么要加WTO了。

其实中美之间的经济战争，早就已经开场了，而且来来回回过了几百招了。我们大多数网友还懵懵懂懂的只盯着台海，盯着中亚美军又多了一个军事基地。要知道经济崩溃的灾难远比一场军事战争的后果更严重。军事战争不外乎两种：即“侵略战争”和“卫国战争”。而军事上的“侵略战争”的最终目的就是打垮对方的一切（军事力量和经济实力）达到占领对方领土，进行资源掠夺和控制奴役和剥削对方的国民。这样的事情中国历史上没有少发生，这里我就不例举事例了。而如今的美国就是以军事上的侵略战争为手段，达到奴役和剥削对方为目的的真实意图（对实力弱小的国家而言），看看如今的“伊拉克”就明白了，美国实际上是侵略占领了伊拉克，控制了伊拉克的石油，以此来满足美国国内巨大的需求量；而对实力强的原苏联（原苏联拥有制对方死地的核力量），美国就只有发动经济进攻来拖垮他们，苏联的分裂就是最好的例子。也许有的人要说，那是冷战时期的军备竞赛和当时苏联国内政策导致了原苏联因经济崩溃而解体的。但是，你有没有想过，进行军备竞赛是以经济实力为基础的。当时的美国经济实力比苏联强，所以，美国胜利了而苏联解体了。现在轮到我们了，我国现在的经济和军事实力都没有冷战时期的苏联强大，相同点是我国同样也拥有毁灭美国的核武器，只是数量少了一点而已。那在这一轮中，就要看我国领导人的智慧了，建立合理的政策来规避风险，保护自己是当务之急（可喜的是，现在我国已经在这样做了）。可是，美国也没有闲着，而且，作为经济进攻的第一步他们已经早早的迈出了，向美国“凯雷财团”这样的世界性投机财团收购中国的“徐州重工”这样的事情已经发生了很多了，在这里我就不一一例举了。他们的目的很明确，控制中国的核心技术，进行世界性的技术垄断。同时乘汇率没有变化之前以美元套取人民币，迫使中国央行大量发行人民币以应付大量的货币兑换需求，为拖垮中国经济打下伏笔。这还是明的进入，暗地里的就更无法统计了。说到这里，也许有很多人不明白大量美元兑换人民币的行为与拖垮中国经济有什么关系。在这里，我解释一下：在正常情况下，在没有大量美国财团恶意涌入中国用大量美元换取人民币之前，我国的经济形式是相对稳定的，我国发行的人民币数量应等于我国人民积累的财富数量。而大量的恶意的国外财团的资金涌入中国，需要兑换大量的人民币，使得国内人民币的流通数量大大超过我国人民所积累的财富数量。而这些人民币全部投入少数领域，表面上是拉动了我国的经济，使国内的消费量变大，实际上也使得资产价格大幅上升。据统计，目前在国际上金融市场上的投资有136万亿美元。其中只要有1%即1.36万亿美元涌入中国进行投机经营，按现在的汇率，我国就要发行10.6万亿元人民币。如果人民币升值15%，他们再用手头的人民币套取美元，他们将换回1.56万亿美元，而中国外汇储备是0.2万亿美元，也就是说一进一出，这些投资资金多了2000亿美元，而中国这么多年充当血汗工厂所挣来存在国库中的2000亿美元一分不剩，留给中国的是当初为应付这1.36万亿美元而发行的10.6万亿的人民币。2006年中国GDP是20万亿，物品是这么多，而钱却多了10.6万亿，那就意味着所有商品都要打折到原来的2/3。恐慌情绪将在社会上蔓延，炒房者为了变现到时可能会出七折、六折、甚至三折出手手中的房子。大批市民破产，牵涉到银行破产，整个国家经济崩溃，我们手中的财富一文不值了。到时国人乃至世界将会对中国失去信心，不再储备和使用甚至抛售手中储备的人民币，使中国的外贸活动受挫，最终导致中国国内的通货膨胀，对外导致信誉危机从而导致金融危机。就向40年代的通货膨胀那样一盒火柴要卖几百块。如果我国go-vern-ment在这次的人民币汇率这件事上决策错误，那么到时中国近30年来改革开放的经济成果就可能落入他人之手。最近，国内的经济形式来看，客观的讲，形式是不容乐观的。按理说，人民币升值了，也就是说钱值钱了，应该是以前1块钱的东西现在只要9毛甚至是8毛就可以买到了；可是现在的国内形式，除了工资没有涨外其余的都涨了。新华网报道说：自2006年8月份开始，北京市场食用油价格震荡上扬。进入11月份，米价、面价、菜价及副食价格均有不同程度的攀升。报道认为，是受国际大豆市场价格上扬的影响，导致食用油价格上升。但是，米面跟风而涨，25公斤装的富强粉涨幅达12%以上，500克大米上涨了6分钱。据了解，在上海、广州、深圳粮油等生活必需品已是涨升一遍，并持续一个多月，其中面粉、食用油的最高涨幅分别已达一成和二成。

农副产品涨价说明了我国经济在发展和提高。同时，以农副产品的涨价来增加农民的收入，维护社会的稳定，给国家的发展提供了一个良好的国内环境，对国家的发展是有好处的，因为中国农民的数量毕竟占了总人口比例的70%以上嘛。但是，中国的这四大城市生活必需品的涨价绝非偶然。持续7个多月的宏观调控并没有稳定房价，相反，导致房价的节节攀升。早有经济学家警告说，地产泡沫将导致通货膨胀，通货膨胀将引发经济危机。然而，这种声音太微弱，现如今的种种迹象表明，通货膨胀正在步步逼近我们。对比1996年的东京，1997年的香港，北京、上海、广州，深圳这四大房价居高不下的城市，地产泡沫破灭前的迹象已经显现。试图为了一已私利而继续哄抬房价的地方go-vern-ment，将迎来经济规律的无情惩罚。因为这一轮的通货膨胀是在毫无防备的情况下发出的，可能还不被官方承认，但它实实在在已经来临了。这种处在萌芽状态的通货膨胀选择了一个导致经济危机的最好时机——2007年的元旦和春节前。因此，危害性和破坏性更大。如果有一天方便面也开始涨价时，这场经济危机已无法遏制了。柴米油盐、水电油汽的轮番涨价和全面涨价，对中国的富豪阶层的正常生活不构成任何影响，但是千千万万的普通市民将要付出更多的财富以维持和原来一样的生活水准，也就是说，中国的高房价，间接地是由普通城市居民来买单，日本的国民是花了15年的时间，香港的市民就是花了14年。那么，中国的城市居民要花多少年呢？应对即将到来的通货膨胀，国家自然有金融的手段。可是，中国的人民币在国际市场受到美元的攻击，一年之内升值达5%，而且，还有继续升值的空间。中国的贸易顺差将在人民币的升值中逐渐缩小，国际市场的风险已在加剧。而国内市场生活必需品的全面涨价，将直接影响消费。最后，逼迫央行加大人民币的发行量，中国的通货膨胀就此爆发。这种危机也可能近在眼前。人民币目前在国际货币市场的遭遇是中国汇制改革以来没有过的事，我们目前已经知道美国要干什么？但是，还由不得我们把国际市场的问题解决好，人民币在国内又是这样的尴尬。在不动产涨价的带动下，生活必需品全面涨价，形成了国际与国内两种迥然不同的市场。从某种意义上来说，这样的市场将走向资本的过度投机。说白了，对内将加剧中国社会的贫富分化，对外给资本大鳄可乘之机。如果更深层次的分析，人民币似乎是遭遇来自不同方面的围攻，试图将中国30来年经济发展的成果逐步蚕食。接下来，生活必需品的涨幅将进一步加剧，市民的购买力进一步下降，国内市场进一步缩小，中国的产能将进一步过剩，最后，必然导致大量的中小企业破产，经济危机说来就来。真正要化解这场危机，对目前的经济局势来说，进一步加大宏观调控的力度，理顺房地产市场的管理体制，采取有力措施，坚决把房价降下来，让城市居民在房价下降的过程中感受中国经济的力量，从而增强对未来的信心。也许，这是目前最应该做的一件事，尽管已经做了一些表面工作。我们要清醒地看到高房价的危害性，尤其是对中国社会的破坏更是史无前例。也许现在还不必过于悲观，一切都应该有转机。谁都知道中国经济发生了重大问题，就象一辆出现明显故障的高速列车，轰轰隆隆往前飞奔，不知何时将会出轨或者颠覆。有经济学家预言，2008年中国经济将会硬着陆，届时，社会动荡不可避免。那么，出了这么大的问题，而问题的症结究竟何在呢？发改委专家马晓河指出：我国正在由某一方面的过剩向全面过剩演变。由于产能过剩，内需不旺，中国产品被迫出口，又导致了大量的贸易摩擦，过分依赖国际市场的风险越来越大。马晓河举例说：中国人向世界上的每一个人提供了一双鞋子，可见鞋的产能过剩多少。2006年11月23日，央行副行长苏宁也表示，中国最终消费占GDP比重已从上世纪80年代超过62%下降到2005的52.1%，居民消费率也从1991年的48.8%下降到2005年的38.2%，均达到历史最低水平。而在中国居民消费率持续下降的同时，世界平均消费率达78%—79%，比较起来差别之大就如天上和地下。上面两位，一位是宏观经济的专家，一位是金融权威，但指出的是一个共同问题，就是因为内需不旺而导致产能过剩，一旦国际市场出现大的风险，中国将有成千上万工业企业面临生存的危险。让我们再来看看近几年推动中国经济高速发展的动因是什么：如果总揽中国经济全局就可以发现，推动中国经济高速增长的一是投资，二是消费，三是出口，可以说这是并驾齐驱的“三驾马车。”但是，在我国的实践中是“重投资、重出口、轻消费，”这是问题的表象。为什么中国人会“重投资、重出口、轻消费，”呢？明知消费是生产力，没有消费就没有生产力，这是一个浅显的经济学常识，但是在宏观经济发展的布局上，连马克思的剩余价值理论都不顾及了？再仔细分析，就会发现很有趣的现象：一是地方go-vern-ment重投资，前几年表现的是“开发区”热，后来是“基本建设”热，再后来就是现在的“房地产”热；二是大中型企业重工业产品出口，不管是上市公司还是民营企业，只要形成了生产规模，眼光都瞄准了国际市场，大到汽车，家电，小到鞋子，袜子，打火机，一古脑出口。就“投资”热而言，高房价圈走了老百姓甚至两代人的财富，还有一代人背上了沉重的债务；就“出口”热而言，贸易顺差继续加剧，贸易摩擦不断增多，人民币升值压力越来越大。有经济学家分析，人民币自汇率改革以来升值了5%，现在的状况是有可能2007年一年就要升值5%，相当于前10多年的升值总幅度。那么这个后果是什么呢？许多经济学家讳莫如深，我可以大胆的告诉大家，后果就是人民币大量从不同渠道流出境，国际洗黑钱的势力乘机介入，甚至可以把中国贪官的钱都洗白了。可以说，在2007年之前，只听说外国人到中国来洗钱，这个局面也将因此而改变，中国人终于到外国去洗钱了。再说得深入一点，就是中国人民创造的财富被别人悄悄地“盗走”了。发改委专家马晓河先生的话头上，看看如何解决产能过剩的问题。其实，很简单，产能过剩的解决之道是刺激消费，而刺激消费的唯一办法就是降低房价。房价不降，中国人对未来的预期必将产生较大的压力而不敢消费，还有一部分成了房奴无钱消费。马晓河先生说，中国工业品利用率有半数低于50%，所以，为了减少风险，必须扩大内需。而内需如何才能扩大呢？中国居民的消费率是38.2%,世界平均消费率是78%—79% 中国居民平均房价收入比是一比十，世界平均房价收入比是一比五。两相对照，中国经济问题的症结就暴露出来，是高得离谱的房价将中国居民的财富搜刮一空，还拿什么去消费呢？所以中国人的消费率创下了历史新低。有专家预测，中国房价每下降一个点，将为市场一年增加100亿以上的消费，而中国房价从2006年前三季度的综合平均价位上，至少有30%以上的下降空间，也就是说，只要中国房价下降30%，中国市场一年将增加3000亿的消费总额，中国经济的问题也迎刃而解，中国民众也从此能过上好日子。相反，我国要是领导人的决策事物方控制不好这个局面，我国的经济将会崩溃。我们都清楚我们现在身处的国际环境有多恶劣，面对当前复杂的国际形势，中国一定要具备打赢两场战争的能力，一是军事战争，二是经济战争。用战争手段夺取别国别人的财富在人类历史上是很常见的。即使在21世纪的今天也还能看到。为了保护中国人民的生命财产，以及可能爆发的军事冲突，中国一定要建设强大的陆军，强大的海军，强大的空军和强大的天军（太空部队）。在人类进入21世纪的今天，谁占领了太空这个制高点，谁就掌握了未来战争的主动权。任何太空非军事化的想法，只能是白日做梦！
圣人说得好：落后是要挨打的！中国只有具备了彻底摧毁对手的实力，别人才不敢欺负中国。同时，在人类进入21世纪的今天，由于国际交流和贸易的全球化，一场新的战争----经济战争，已经取代军事战争，成为当今世界一部分人夺取另一部分人财产的主要手段。 1997年东南亚的金融风暴就是经济战争的一个例子。落后的东南亚国家经济受到了重大打击。国际金融炒家以经济手段达到了以往要用战争手段才能达到的目标。在少迟一点的香港金融保卫战中，时任香港政务司司长的曾荫权和财政司司长任志刚，在中国中央go-vern-ment的支持下，用大量外汇储备干预了香港的股票市场。中国中央go-vern-ment派出了两名央行副行长到香港，要求香港的全部中资机构，全力以赴支持香港go-vern-ment的扶盘行动。经过几个月的较量，香港go-vern-ment成功击退了国际金融炒家把香港当作提款机的企图。那次的斗争是非常激烈的，香港恒指变动1点，期货的买卖就会相差2.3亿港币。香港金融保卫战虽然过去好多年了，我一直在想，如果没有强大中国做后盾，会不会发生“八国联军”攻打香港的可能呢？毕竟香港go-vern-ment干预香港股票市场违反了当今国际主流社会的“规矩”。中国航油（新加坡）在国际石油期货市场损失5亿美元和一位中国国资委职员在伦敦同期投资再次被吃表明中国在金融市场方面还有很多东西要学。就石油这一项，中国现在每年就要多花几百亿美元。现在是中国需要啥，国际商品市场就涨啥。可以说是“抢你没商量”。然而，石油等商品的价格对中国经济的危害并不是最严重的。真正可能对中国经济的造成严重危害是人民币汇率体系和不断高涨的房地产市场。我总觉得有人要以人民币汇率为突破口，搞垮中国的经济，夺取中国人民的经济成果。从要人民币升值和自由浮动的叫喊声中，我好像闻到了军事战争的火药味。现在有一个说得比唱得还好听得说法，让人民币汇率自由浮动，由市场来决定。难道市场是有鬼决定的吗？由市场来决定，听起来挺公平的，大家都有权。但仔细分析一下，世界上有哪个市场不是由少数人操中的呢？让人民币汇率由市场来决定，说穿了就是由他们来决定。中国go-vern-ment和人民一定不要忘记1997年东南亚的金融风暴。现在外资的相当一部分是埋下的伏兵。它们就等美国把中国的门撞开（人民币汇价自由浮动），把人民币捧上天，牟取暴利。总之，中国一定要建设具有一不怕苦，二不怕死精神的强大的陆军，强大的海军，强大的空军和强大的天军（太空部队）以应对可能军事战争。同时中国一定要建设热爱国家，具有国际视野，精通国际竟争规则的金融“铁军”以应对经济战争。只有这样，中国的安全，人民的财富才会得到保护！

Euro Volatility Signals Weakness as Confidence Falls

2010-06-14T02:32:00.001-07:00

June 14 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest currency fluctuations since the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. are signaling waning confidence in the economic recovery and prospects for a rebound in the euro.

The euro’s 15 percent plunge against the dollar this year sparked a 6 percent loss for bets tied to foreign-exchange price volatility, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc indexes. That’s the worst performance among four currency strategies tracked by RBS and compares with a 22 percent gain last year, when the global economy rebounded.

Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis, the failure of regional leaders to improve sentiment toward the euro and diverging growth rates around the world means elevated volatility for years, according to UBS AG, the world’s second-biggest currency trader. Less predictable foreign-exchange levels may endanger the recovery by driving up short-term rates, even as a weaker euro stimulates exports, the Zurich-based bank said.

“The sources of concern won’t go away anytime soon,” said Dale Thomas, head of currencies in London at Insight Investment Management Ltd., which oversees about $144 billion. “We’re defensive and still don’t like the euro.” Thomas said he owns the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reversed its forecast for the euro last week, saying it will drop to about a seven-year low of $1.15 by year-end as the European debt crisis deepens. The New York-based firm previously predicted $1.35. Royal Bank of Canada said June 7 the euro will depreciate to $1.10 in a year, after earlier forecasting $1.21, on reduced demand for the currency.

Market Volatility

The euro traded today at $1.2178, down from $1.4321 at the end of 2009. Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes show it depreciated in seven of the past eight weeks.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s G7 Volatility Index shows implied volatility for the most-traded currencies, including the dollar and the yen, reached the highest since April 2009 last month. The measure jumped to 16.95, from 10.47 in April, before ending at 13.43 on June 11.

Prices swings increased even after the European Union crafted a $1 trillion aid package last month to support the region’s most indebted nations and the European Central Bank began buying bonds of member states to drive down yields.

Policy makers in Spain and Portugal now face the risk of labor unrest as they adopt austerity measures to show investors they won’t join Greece in requiring a bailout.

‘Far From Over’

“The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real, and the crisis is far from over,” billionaire George Soros, the founder of Soros Fund Management LLC, said on June 10 at a conference in Vienna. “We have just entered Act II of the drama.”

The World Bank in Washington echoed Soros’ concerns, saying some European nations may experience a second economic slowdown if the region fails to manage its debt crisis, threatening countries from Central Asia to Latin America.

“We’re expecting that growth in the second quarter is also likely to be disappointing, quite possibly seeing negative growth in several European countries and a double dip in some of these economies,” Andrew Burns, the World Bank’s manager of global macroeconomics, said at a press briefing.

Volatility has shaken more than currency markets. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 8.2 percent last month, the most since a 75 percent surge began in March 2009 through the end of April.

‘Next Phase’

“The first round of currency volatility was driven by concerns about euro-zone sovereign risks,” said Olivier Korber, a currency-derivatives strategist at Societe Generale SA in Paris. “The next phase will come from the divergence in global economic policies and central-bank exits.”

While the fiscal crisis will compel the ECB to keep its main interest rate at 1 percent until the second quarter of 2011, the Federal Reserve will raise its key rate in the first three months of the year, according to Bloomberg surveys of economists. Central banks in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway have increased borrowing costs this year to check inflation and prevent asset bubbles.

Risks to the global economic outlook have “risen significantly,” International Monetary Fund Deputy Managing Director Naoyuki Shinohara said in Singapore on June 9. “After nearly two years of global economic and financial upheaval, shockwaves are still being felt, as we have seen with recent developments in Europe and the resulting financial market volatility.”

Implied Volatility

One-month implied volatility for the euro versus the dollar rose to 18.6 percent on May 21, the highest level in 14 months. It also exceeds the 11.4 percent average in the past year. The measure will average closer to 15 percent in the future, said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, the Singapore-based head of currency strategy at UBS.

Fifty-nine percent of 275 U.S. companies in a survey by Wayne, Pennsylvania-based SunGard Data Systems Inc. last month said currency fluctuations had a “material” effect on net income, up from 40 percent in the previous study. Volatility resulted in a gain or loss of at least 5 percent in the 12 months ended March 31, the company said.

“We now live in a much more uncertain world,” Mohi-uddin said. “The epicenter of the crisis keeps shifting, starting out in the U.S. housing market, then it went to the global financial markets and now it’s in Europe.”

Summer Slowdown

Volatility will slow this summer as the economic rebound deepens and the funding needs of Greece and Spain abate, easing concern about contagion from the euro-region’s debt crisis, said Henrik Gullberg, a London-based analyst at Deutsche Bank AG, the world’s biggest currency dealer.

“If you look at the euro, the price action is becoming increasingly stretched and it’s time for consolidation, which normally entails lower volatility,” he said. “Any renewed rise in volatility by the end of the year will be limited by the continuing economic recovery.”

The euro will rebound to $1.30 by year-end as investor concern about sovereign debt shifts to the U.S., he said.

Losses from employing a short-volatility strategy, where investors sell options protecting buyers against currency swings, compare with a more than 7 percent gain this year from a trend- following plan, the RBS indexes show. Using a valuation strategy, where investors buy currencies they speculate have fallen too far, would have returned 4.5 percent.

Carry Trades

Returns from using a carry-trade strategy, where investors sell low-yielding currencies such as the yen to buy higher- yielding counterparts including the Australian dollar, fell 5.7 percent last month, the biggest drop since October 2008, just after Lehman’s collapse, according to the RBS indexes. The yen climbed 6.2 percent against the Aussie and 19 percent versus the euro this year.

Foreign-exchange fluctuations are also leading Asian exporters to seek currency controls. Central banks in South Korea, Taiwan and China are selling their own currencies, limiting investment inflows and delaying rate increases.

“The sources of volatility are clearly still with us,” said Jerome Booth, who helps oversee about $33 billion as the London-based head of research at Ashmore Investment Management Ltd. “Volatility is likely to go up, not down.”

German Exports

The 15 percent slide of the euro against the yuan this year makes European goods more competitive in Asia and reduced the need for appreciation of the Chinese currency against the dollar. ING Groep NV said June 10 China won’t end the yuan’s 23-month peg to the dollar for a year.

German exports jumped 2.6 percent in the first quarter from the last three months of 2009, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said on May 21. While exports declined in April, they surged the most in 18 years in March, the statistics bureau reported on June 8 and May 10.

Finance ministers in Europe have indicated they’re in no rush to stem the euro’s slide against the dollar, saying the current level may underpin the recovery. The currency had been “too strong for the economy,” Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders said in Luxembourg on June 7. A $1.20 rate “is not so bad for competitiveness.”

The euro averaged $1.3576 in March, down from a 2009 high of $1.5144 on Nov. 25. A dollar-based investor who bought the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, which tracks equities in countries sharing the euro, at the start of the year has lost 11 percent on the shares and 25 percent when accounting for currency losses. The S&P 500 dropped 2.1 percent in the period.

Goldman Sachs cut its three-month and six-month euro targets to $1.15, from $1.35, saying it was “wrong” in assuming European growth would accelerate, while the U.S. slowed, according to a June 9 report.

“European politics remained a major source of uncertainty,” analysts includingThomas Stolper at Goldman Sachs in London wrote. “The likelihood of continued policy mishaps remains very high in the near term and as a result, the euro will likely remain under pressure.”

China consumer prices up 3.1%, breaching Beijing's target

2010-06-11T00:15:00.000-07:00

Consumer price rose 3.1% in May from a year earlier, while wholesale prices rose 7.1%, according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics. The results exceeded expectations for a 3% rise in CPI and a 6.9% gain in PPI, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

How to handle China's property market

Feng Lun, Vantone Real Estate's chairman, talks about the relationship between the government and developers.

The CPI is now exceeding the 3% ceiling of the government's targeted inflation range.

However, some analysts expressed doubt the CPI figures would prompt a major tightening response from Beijing, as softening food prices in May suggests some inflationary pressures may be about reach a high-water mark in the next few months.

"Headline CPI inflation could peak in mid-year at a level much below those hawkish forecasts made" at the beginning of the year, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch analysts said in a note following the data release.

"We should remember that market consensus has been revised down significantly over the past couple of weeks as a result of the 20% slump of vegetable prices in May," the analysts said.

Of other data released Friday, Chinese banks extended 639.4 billion yuan ($93.6 billion) in new loans for the month, down from the 774 billion yuan extended in April, according to figures published by the People's Bank of China.

Reuters

A women browses at a shoe store in Hefei, China.

Though easing from April, the lending figure exceeded forecasts for 600 billion yuan in new loans.

More money

On the other side of the argument, other analysts pointed to monetary data as showing inflation is, in fact, a threat.

Money supply as measured by M1 rose 29.9%, easing from April's 31.3%, while the broader M2 metric was up 21%, easing from 21.5% in April, according to data Friday.

RBC Capital Markets analysts said the money supply data indicated cash was moving from longer-term deposits and into those of the shortest duration, raising risks that inflationary pressures could continue to heat up.

"Beijing would like to delay tightening policy further until it gets a clearer read of the property market and the fallout from euro-area weakness, but this strategy is risky given the potential for further gains in inflation in the near term," they wrote in note Friday.

On the downside

Adding to the mixed nature of the data, some figures showed parts of the economy slowing slightly.

May industrial-production growth eased to 16.5% from 17.8% in the previous month, missing economists' estimates for 17%.

But some economists saw this data as painting a misleading impression of slowing factory activity because it contrasted with a year-earlier period when China's export-oriented economy was beginning to recover from the collapse in global trade.

"This slowdown is mostly due to a rising comparison base," the Merrill analysts said.

However, they added that the base effect wasn't the entire story and about one-third of economists' growth forecasts for 2010 would still need to be revised lower to account for the weaker industrial-production figures.

Similarly, urban fixed-asset investments for the first five months of this year eased to 25.9% from 26.1% in the January-April period, though the result was slightly higher than the 25.8% growth anticipated by analysts.

But retail sales jumped 18.7% in May, beating April's 18.5% rise.

Overall, stock market indexes in China reacted favorably to the data release. Shanghai's Composite Index added 0.4%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.3% in late morning trade.

Dissecting Declarations, Ex-Dividends And Record Dates

2010-06-10T02:35:00.000-07:00

Have the workings of dividends and dividend distributions mystified you too? Chances are it's not the concept of dividends that confuses you; the ex-dividend date and date of record are the tricky factors. In this article we'll sort through the dividend payment process and explain on what date the buyer of the stock gets to keep the dividend.

Before we explain how it all works, let's go over some of the basics to ensure we have the proper foundation to understand the more complex issues. Some investment terms are thrown around more often than Frisbees on a hot summer day, so it's important that we define exactly what we're talking about.

Different Types of Dividends
The decision to distribute a dividend is made by a company's board of directors. There is nothing requiring a company to pay a dividend, even if the company has paid dividends in the past. However, many investors view a steady dividend history as an important indicator of a good investment, so most companies are reluctant to reduce or stop their dividend payments. (For more information on buying dividend paying stocks, see the articles How Dividends Work for Investors and The Importance of Dividends.)

Dividends can be paid in various different forms, but there are two major categories: cash and stock. The most popular are cash dividends. This is money paid to stockholders, normally out of the corporation's current earnings or accumulated profits.

For example, suppose you own 100 shares of Cory's Brewing Company (ticker: CBC). Cory has made record sales this year thanks to an unusually high demand for his unique peach flavored beer. The company therefore decides to share some of this good fortune with the stockholders and declares a dividend of $0.10 per share. This means that you will receive a check from Cory's Brewing Company for $10.00 ($0.10*100). In practice, companies that pay dividends usually do so on a regular basis of four times a year. A one-time dividend such as the one we just described is referred to as an extra dividend.

The stock dividend, the second most common dividend paying method, pays additional shares rather than cash. Suppose that Cory's Brewing Company wishes to issue a dividend but doesn't have the necessary cash available to pay everyone. He does, however, have enough Treasury stock to meet the requirements of the dividend payout. So instead of paying cash, Cory decides to issue a dividend of 0.05 new shares of CBC for every existing one. This means that you will receive five shares of CBC for every 100 shares that you own. If any fractional shares are left over, the dividend is paid as cash (because stocks can't trade fractionally).

Another type of dividend is the property dividend, but it is used rarely. This type of allocation is a physical transfer of a tangible asset from the company to the investors. For instance, if Cory's Brewing Company was still insistent on paying out dividends but didn't have enough Treasury stock or enough money to pay out all investors, the company could look for something physical (property) to distribute. In this case, Cory might decide that his unique peach beer would be the best substitute, so he could distribute a couple of six-packs to all the shareholders.

The Important Dates of a Dividend
There are four major dates in the process of a company paying dividends:

Declaration date - This is the date on which the board of directors announces to shareholders and the market as a whole that the company will pay a dividend.
Ex-date or Ex-dividend date - On (or after) this date the security trades without its dividend. If you buy a dividend paying stock one day before the ex-dividend you will still get the dividend, but if you buy on the ex-dividend date, you won't get the dividend. Conversely, if you want to sell a stock and still receive a dividend that has been declared you need to sell on (or after) the ex-dividend day. The ex-date is the second business day before the date of record.
Date of record - This is the date on which the company looks at its records to see who the shareholders of the company are. An investor must be listed as a holder of record to ensure the right of a dividend payout.
Date of payment (payable date) - This is the date the company mails out the dividend to the holder of record. This date is generally a week or more after the date of record so that the company has sufficient time to ensure that it accurately pays all those who are entitled.

Why All These Dates?
Ex-dividend dates are used to make sure dividend checks go to the right people. In today's market, settlement of stocks is a T+3 process, which means that when you buy a stock, it takes three days from the transaction date (T) for the change to be entered into the company's record books.

As mentioned, if you are not in the company's record books on the date of record, you won't receive the dividend payment. To ensure that you are in the record books, you need to buy the stock at least three business days before the date of record, which also happens to be the day before the ex-dividend date.

As you can see by the diagram above, if you buy on the ex-dividend date (Tuesday), which is only two business days before the date of record, you will not receive the dividend because your name will not appear in the company's record books until Friday. If you want to buy the stock and receive the dividend, you need to buy it on Monday. (When the stock is trading with the dividend the term cum dividend is used). But, if you want to sell the stock and still receive the dividend, you need to sell on or after Tuesday the 6th.

*Note: Different rules apply if the dividend is 25% or greater of the value of the security. In this case, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) indicates that the ex-date is the first business day following the payable date. For further details on dividend issues, search FINRA's website.

A Money Machine?
Now that we understand that a dividend can be received by purchasing the stock before the ex-date, can we make more money? Nope, it's not that easy. Remember, everybody knows when the dividend is going to be paid, and the market sees the dividend payout as a time when the company is giving out a part of its profits (reducing its cash). So the price of the stock will drop approximately by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date. The word "approximately" is crucial here. Due to tax considerations and other happenings in the market, the actual drop in price may be slightly different. In any case, the point is that you can't make free profits on the ex-dividend date.

Conclusion
The reasons for and effects of all these dates are by no means easy to grasp. It's important to clear up any confusion between ex-dividend and record dates. But always keep in mind that when you're investing in a dividend paying stock, it's more crucial to consider the quality of the company than the date on which you buy in.

China's mining sector shares 'oversold'

2010-06-08T00:12:00.001-07:00

TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- China's metals and mining shares have suffered significant declines so far this year, but analysts say the drop may be overdone despite the potential for a slowdown in construction activity.

Markets have been "braced for the worst on China property and Europe slowdown fears," analysts at HSBC said in a recent research note. But the reality is "far less dramatic with few signs yet of a sharp pullback in demand."

Bear market rallies elusive

Despite over-sold conditions, investor hesitancy remains the market's defining characteristic.

Project completions are up 14% in the year to April, while construction starts are up 64% year on year, they said.

They also point out that Europe is a "non issue" for Chinese stocks they cover because exports represent a low portion of sales.

Despite all that, shares of metals and mining stocks have mostly logged declines so far this year.

In Hong Kong's late morning trading, shares of Angang Steel Co. (HK:347 9.49, +0.15, +1.61%) (ANGGF 1.30, +0.11, +9.24%)were up 1%, but they're down more than 40% since the start of the year. Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (HK:2600 6.06, +0.04, +0.66%) (ALMMF 0.77, -0.05, -6.58%), also known as Chalco, added 0.5%, but was down almost 30% year to date. Jiangxi Copper Co.(HK:358 14.40, -0.08, -0.55%) fell 0.3%, trading more than 20% lower so far for the year.

2600 6.06, +0.04, +0.66%

In Shanghai, Chalco(CN:601600 10.05, -0.05, -0.50%) was flat, trading around 30% lower year to date, while Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.(CN:600019 6.05, -0.06, -0.99%) slipped 0.3%, down over 35% for the year so far.

With valuations now below trend levels, the Chinese metals and mining sector is "oversold," HSBC analysts said, noting that they "remain positive on steel and coal and cautious on metals."

In wider markets activity, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index tacked on 0.1% and China's Shanghai Composite added 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.4% higher after a weak open, South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.8% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.2%.

Construction ahead

Analysts at Macquarie Research said construction activity may even strengthen towards the end of this year.

"Everything that is currently being built will continue, providing a minimum level of demand" for steel, in particular," they said in a note to clients Monday.

Macquarie's economics team also believes that the next economic policy move from Beijing is "more likely to be loosening than tightening," and that such a move could come in the fourth quarter of 2010 or even before, allowing for "sequential improvement in construction activity at the end of 4Q," the analysts said.

Macquarie analysts also expect steel demand growth from property and commercial real estate of 12%-14% year on year for 2010.

And given that construction projects typically take 18-24 months to complete, demand for metals from the construction sector should remain firm, albeit slower, analysts at HSBC said.

"The roll-out of affordable housing should also see public investment provide some offset to lower private investment," they said.

Concerns linger for steel

Even so, if steel demand is set to cool into the second half, supply will have to "come off and inventory will need to be reduced," analysts at Macquarie said.

But steel production itself won't necessarily need to be cut dramatically, they said.

Marginal producers are already reportedly cutting back on production as steel prices have fallen, pressuring margins, they said, adding that the biggest problem for the mills is the high cost of their iron ore inventory.

End users continuing to destock ahead of a seasonally weaker third quarter, coupled with margin pressure, "should bring production down and enable traders to run off some of their inventory," analysts at Macquarie said.

"While this readjustment could lead to a weak price environment in the next few months, it should set the scene for a decent recovery in the fourth quarter (if not before) as demand makes a sequential recovery and restocking activity returns," they said.

FSA Hands J.P. Morgan Record Fine

2010-06-03T05:28:00.001-07:00

LONDON—The U.K.'s Financial Services Authority said Thursday it has fined J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. £33.32 million ($48.8 million) for failing to separate client money from the firm's money, in the largest fine in the FSA's history.

The FSA said J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. didn't follow the rules by keeping client money held by its futures and options business separated from the firm's own money between November 2002 and July 2009.

The U.K. market regulator said that during that period, the client money balance held by the business varied between $1.9 billion and $23 billion. The error, which was discovered last July, occurred following the merger between J.P. Morgan and Chase, and wasn't deliberate, the FSA added.

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"Had the firm become insolvent at any time during this period, this client money would have been at risk of loss," the FSA said in a statement.

The company "committed a serious breach of our client money rules by failing to segregate billions of dollars of its clients' money for nearly seven years. The penalty reflects the amount of client money involved in this breach," it added.

The FSA's latest enforcement move comes as the agency continues to face pressure to prove that its existence is essential for the U.K.'s financial health. The agency, which has a toothless reputation, was nearly abolished following national elections last month. But the new government coalition decided to keep it.

J.P. Morgan received a 30% discount on the fine for agreeing to settle the issue at an early stage, the regulator said. Without the settlement discount, the fine would have been £47.6 million, the FSA said. A firm spokesman wasn't immediately available to comment.

Previously, the largest fine handed down by the FSA was a £17 million fine against Royal Dutch Shell PLC in 2004 for market abuse.

World Stock Exchanges

2010-05-31T00:42:00.000-07:00

History of Stock Exchanges

By the eighteenth century the first stock exchangeswere formed in England, the Netherlands and France. In the American colonies, commerce was significant, but still heavily controlled by England. An informal auction market was established in New York in 1752. As the colonial economy matured and demands for funds were made by local businesses, the auction market grew.

Following the American Revolution, a banking system was established and about 300 corporations were chartered by the new government. These were primarily banks, insurance companies, dock construction firms and mining companies, and represented the first "industrials" of Wall Street.

In 1792, many New York brokers formally agreed how security transactions would take place, what commissions would be charged and what preference would be given to members of the group in these business negotiations and transactions. The pact organized the New York securities market as a definite institution.

The dollar became recognized as a sound investment medium and large amounts of capital, now needed to finance both industry and government, led to the development of investment banking. Because individual brokers could no longer handle the huge amounts of capital necessary to finance government and industry, syndicates, or groups of investment banking houses, would underwrite or provide the necessary funds directly to the corporate or government borrower for a fee. In turn, the underwriters would sell shares to smaller investors.

Meanwhile, the New York Stock Exchange and Board, as it was then called, continued to use the auction method for security transactions. This was later changed to a more responsive, continuous market, which is the way the exchanges work today. Brokers then began making markets in certain stocks. They would accumulate an inventory of these stocks by buying up shares for their own account, absorbing large client sales and then reselling from these inventories as demand dictated. These specialists had a stabilizing effect on the market, so that when large transactions occurred, the price of the stock was not unduly influenced.

While multiple exchanges proliferated, the lack of communication among them allowed individual stocks to trade at different prices on the different exchanges. Those investors nimble enough to trade on more than one exchange could buy low in one market and sell higher in another market. This procedure was a simple version of the trading technique known as arbitrage, which is used today by sophisticated investors.

Several exchanges

While several stock exchanges now exist in the US, a consolidated tape instantly provides information on every stock traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and regional exchanges. Most stock transactions, in dollar value terms, occur on the New York Stock Exchange, also known as the Big Board. Here, the standards for listing have always been the highest. There is also the American Stock Exchange, known as the Amex, as well as several regional exchanges for listed stocks.

So-called "unlisted stocks" are traded in the over-the-counter (OTC) market, which is a market linked together by a communications network available to all stockbrokers. Unlisted stocks are sold primarily on the basis of the spread, or difference, between the bid and asked prices of dealers making markets in particular stocks. Listed stocks are sold primarily on a commission basis, with small bid-ask spreads. The commission varies depending on the price and size of the order. Note, however, that commissions are also charged on OTC stocks.

The National Association of Securities Dealers maintains an automated quotation system (NASDAQ) that enables its members to trade OTC stocks directly among one another. Thanks to this system and its computers, reliable price and volume-of-trading information on OTC stocks is now available, making most OTC stocks as easy to trade as listed stocks. Not all OTC stocks are on the NASDAQ system, however.

地产政策治标不治本

2010-05-30T23:44:00.001-07:00

“自从4月17日推出‘国十条’以来，房地产市场只是交易量出现了大跌，但房价并没有出现什么下跌的景象，这些政策都太缺乏效用，最主要的原因是这些政策都是治标不治本的。”在2010全球企业家远东论坛的间隙，著名经济学家郎咸平在接受搜狐财经对话时这样表示。

　　“房地产政策出台太多次了，但没有一次是行之有效的，这些政策总是不能落实，政府只是一再的出台政策，而不是深层次的去了解其中的问题。什么才是治本？我们应该思考的是如何疏导，而不是一味的去压制。”郎咸平表示。

　　那什么才叫治本？政府又应该出台什么样的对策来解决这些问题？郎咸平说：“我想政府是不是应该设立一个规则，打破自己的垄断，允许一个竞争机制出来，比如说老百姓自己买地建房，政府要监管、要规划，像德国和瑞典一样。第二点，是不是各级地方政府的财政收入要有一个重新的分配，使得地方政府有意愿建经济适用房和廉租屋。第三，我们政府货币政策是不是应该检讨，这种天量的信贷本身造成的破坏是不是应该改正呢？此外，企业家碰到的困境是不是应该帮他们解决呢？”

　　“解决了这三个问题之后，楼价居高不下的境况就会缓解。可是我们现在不是这么做的，我们现在是变本加厉，过去的所有政策都是失败的，政府情急之下会想出更加不合理的政策。如果仍然是这样下去的话，我担心的不是经济会二次探底，而是病情会更加恶化。”郎咸平说道。“就像一个火山，你不去消化掉它的溶浆，而拿一些东西去堵火山口。这样的政策怎么可能是行之有效的呢？我现在更担心的问题是如果这个火山口真的被堵住了，以后会出现什么状况？火山会不会爆炸？”

China Posts 11.9% Growth, but Rebound Brings Risks

2010-04-15T00:08:00.000-07:00

China's economy expanded 11.9% from a year earlier in the first quarter of 2010, the government said Thursday, a strong result that highlighted both the strength of the recovery in the world's third-largest economy and the increasing risks of overheating.

In a statement issued before the latest data were published, China's State Council said the nation's economic recovery has been further consolidated in recent months, but there are still prominent problems and risks to deal with. Top of the list is an increasingly frothy real-estate market: property prices in China grew at the fastest pace in nearly five years in March, according to official figures issued Wednesday.

The national property-price index rose 11.7% in March from a year earlier, accelerating from February's 10.7% rise, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The increase was the largest since July 2005, when the bureau switched to an index based on data in 70 cities, rather than 35.

The State Council repeated its promise to "resolutely curb" excessive property price rises by restricting speculative purchases while increasing the supply of land for housing and government supports for low-income housing. But analysts said the measures taken so far appear to be insufficient, and the latest economic data will likely reinforce official resolve to take further measures to cool down growth, economists said.

The real-estate sector has become an increasingly important driver of China's economy as the government seeks to promote home ownership, and was given a huge boost by the flood of bank lending unleashed by the leadership's stimulus program. The surge prices in major cities also threatens to make property unaffordable for many, and Beijing has for several months sought to contain prices and ward off an asset bubble.

The growth in the first quarter's gross domestic product accelerated from the 10.7% gain reported in the fourth quarter of 2009, and was faster than the 11.5% median forecast of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. But the State Council cautioned against excessive optimism, noting that the fast rate of growth in the first quarter is largely due to the low base of comparison a year earlier, when the impact of the global financial crisis led to China's slowest quarterly expansion in nearly two decades.

"A number of factors driving up prices are appearing, strengthening expectations of inflation. The problem of excessive increases in housing prices in some cities is particularly acute," the State Council said in its statement issued after a quarterly meeting on the economy, headed by Premier Wen Jiabao.

The fastest housing-price increases in March were in the southern island province of Hainan, a popular tourist destination. Prices in the provincial capital Haikou rose an average 64.8% from a year earlier, while those in the resort city of Sanya jumped 57.5% during the period. Prices in Guangzhou, the capital of the southern province of Guangdong, rose 20.3%.

Broader inflation risks have been subdued so far, with the consumer price index rising 2.4% in March from a year earlier, down from February's 2.7% rise which was boosted by seasonal factors. Still, inflation is close to Beijing's 3% target, so additional measures may yet be needed to keep price rises in an acceptable range.

To cope with those issues, China's government has in recent months been moving to dial back the amount of new lending the banking system delivers to the economy, though officials still want to make sure financing remains supportive. Economists expect the central bank will soon start raising interest rates for the first time in two years to combat rising inflationary pressures.

Banks started to shrink their new lending significantly in February and March of this year, after the government set a smaller target for new loans this year. Fixed-asset investment in urban areas, an important measure of capital spending, has also been slowing from over 30% growth last year. Investment was up 26.4% in the January-March period, down from 26.6% in the January-February period.

Obama urges China’s leader on currency

2010-04-13T02:46:00.000-07:00

President Barack Obama on Monday pushed President Hu Jintao of China to allow the renminbi to appreciate and to back sanctions on Iran.

After an hour-and-a-half-long meeting on the sidelines of the nuclear security summit Mr Obama is hosting, the two sides emphasised their increasing co-operation after a period when Washington and Beijing appeared to be at loggerheads.

The meeting had been in doubt after disputes this year over Taiwan and the Dalai Lama.

“The fact that Hu Jintao decided to come is in itself quite a success for the administration,” said Michael Green at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

US officials say China has also become more responsive on two highly charged political issues for Mr Obama – Iran and the alleged undervaluation of the renminbi, which many US officials say leaves US producers unable to compete.

Having decided to begin discussions on United Nations sanctions against Iran, China has signalled it may be preparing for a currency appreciation.

“The president reaffirmed his view that it is important for a sustained and balanced global economic recovery that China move toward a more market-oriented exchange rate,” said Jeff Bader, Mr Obama’s top White House adviser on Asia. He added that Mr Obama also “noted his concern” over market access barriers in China.

“The two presidents agreed that the two delegations should work on a [UN] sanctions resolution in New York, and that’s what we’re doing,” said Mr Bader.

Monday’s summit also saw a declaration by Ukraine that it would rid itself of all highly enriched uranium on its territory by 2012. The summit, which continues on Tuesday, is intended to put all such dangerous nuclear materials out of the reach of terrorists by 2013.

China was provided with fresh evidence in the debate over the renminbi’s valuation by Monday’s data on foreign exchange reserves, which rose by $47.9bn to $2,447bn by the end of the first quarter, compared with a $126.5bn rise in the fourth quarter of 2009, the Chinese central bank said on Monday.

Analysts said the moderation in the reserves growth was mostly due to a 77 per cent drop in China’s trade surplus in the first quarter from the same period a year earlier to $14.5bn.

China recorded a trade deficit of $7.2bn in March, its first in six years, which the country’s Ministry of Commerce said proved the exchange rate was not the main factor determining trade flows.

“This will certainly help Beijing’s argument but, regardless of the monthly deficit and slowing reserves, the US will keep up the pressure because a lot of the debate is motivated by political considerations on Capitol Hill,” said Dong Tao, chief China economist at Credit Suisse.

Beijing appears to be preparing for an imminent adjustment to its exchange rate mechanism. Senior officials and economists suggest it may widen the daily trading band and resume the gradual managed appreciation in the renminbi that was halted in July 2008 in response to the global financial crisis.

China's Tencent to Buy Stake in Russia's DST

2010-04-12T14:19:00.000-07:00

BEIJING—China's largest Internet company, Tencent Holdings Ltd., is purchasing a 10% stake in Digital Sky Technologies Ltd., a Russian investment firm that holds a stake in Facebook Inc.

Shenzhen-based Tencent, which popularized instant messaging in China and operates an online game portal and other Chinese Internet services, said it will invest approximately $300 million in Moscow-based Digital Sky, also known as DST. The companies plan to explore "new business opportunities" in the Russian-speaking Internet markets, said Tencent President Martin Lau in a joint statement Monday.

From WSJ

海派清口侃经济

2010-03-23T15:39:00.000-07:00

周立波笑侃大上海，那我今天也来随便侃侃，侃到哪，是哪。

大家有没有注意到，周立波是什么时候红起来的？2009年。2009年是什么？金融危机啊。他咋在萧条时期红了呢？哈哈～这就叫萧条中的“繁荣”。

同样，那个娘娘腔什么时候红的？2008年春晚，那个时候也是金融危机的头上。之后经济比比滑落，他却结结攀升。还有那郭德刚，摸爬滚打十几年，咦，偏偏在萧条时期闯出了名声。

很多社会学家，主流媒体告诉你，这个叫人民文化生活开始丰富了。而且周立波的票起价在两三百元，于是乎，那帮人又告诉你，我们人民还有钱去享受呢，西方人民都破产了。

我不100％反对这种肤浅的观点，但至少我会感觉说这种话的人是不深入分析的啦。你听我往下说。

2009年最流行什么文化？“宅”，“囧”。

什么叫宅？就是你不出去。为什么你不出去？因为你没钱出去。为什么你没钱？因为应届大学生找不到（好）工作。为什么找不到（好）工作？经济不好啊！所以你就宅在家。所以网络游戏红了，网络视频多了，网络消费火了。更有意思，杜蕾丝避孕产品在中国销量大大增加了。大家宅在家要不坐着看电脑，要不床上快活去。

什么叫囧？其实就是无聊且低级的东西。你别说，这年头，谁更损，谁更贱，谁就红！其实是有道理的。经济萧条，你宅在家里，要给自己找乐子的呀，否则人都要傻掉的！所以周立波来了，他让你笑了，他让税收缩水的上海地区笑了起来。这个很重要的，大家上班时间少了，不用加班了，如果不转移一下他们的精力，这个要出问题的。所以即使周立波嘲讽温家宝，模仿三代领导人，他还被央视邀请去春晚，这个简直是违反共产党的常理的。但没办法，他一定要火，否则社会情绪要低弥的。不知道你还记得温家宝在去年的两会上说什么？他说“心暖则经济暖。” 概括得多好啊！高，实在是高！共党虽农民出生，但说话从来是高度概括的。呵呵…

回到上面那个问题，周立波文化的背后是什么？是可怕的萧条事实，不是什么狗屁人民生活丰富了。

美国也有这个问题啊。为什么经济最不好的时候推出豪华3D电影？都是一个道理。还有很多全明星阵容的电影。经济不好，明星也打折了。本来2千万老娘才肯出镜，现在500万也行了。还有那个 Lady GaGa，那个真叫“雷死人不常命啊！” 但是这个萧条的时代，大家需要她！

有人问我，你说中国人都没工作了，那怎么还有人去买车，买奢侈品？中国前几年高速发展，势必有些人有点资金积累。比如那些做小买卖的温州人，有个几百万身价很正常。但当前经济不好，他也不怎么想做了。而且这年头，房地产也已被抄得太离谱，几百万身价说不定也搞不定一套房，所以想穿了，就去买个车开开，买个LV背背。但我们的媒体在那里自豪狂语，“中国要超过日本，成为世界第一奢侈品大国咯！”

但实际的背后是什么？是资产的滞留，投资环境的恶化？不是什么狗屁人民币多得铺出来了。

又有人问我了，那我们的GDP还是高速增长的啊？那是。中国13亿人，它的经济规模不能放慢的，否则不知道又要多少农民工要回老家了。所以中国政府搞什么呢？搞个铁路让你盖盖，来个高速让你挖挖，投资个十几亿的大桥让你造造。这种大工程一弄，GDP会低嘛？但铁路挖好了，即使通道你家门口，和你的工资有什么关系？国家是看上去强大了，但奇怪的是，人民没怎么拿到真实惠。（包括你的工资，你的社会保障体系，子女教育环境...等等）

所以这GDP背后是什么呢？是过渡的不合理，不可持续的开发。

其实还有很多话题，比如中国的美金储备。中国不仅量多，还有一个很奇怪的地方。它增持美金的同时，不增持黄金的。稍有点金融知识的人都知道，美金和黄金的价格大部分时间是反比例的，所以你同时拥有美金和黄金，能起到很好的对冲作用。你手里的美金跌了，这时候黄金会涨，你就抛售黄金来弥补美金的损失。但中国不是的，连小小的荷兰，黄金持有量都多与中国。所以美国把你玩死，让美金猛跌，让黄金冲千元大关。最后你中国人只能看着国库里的美金贬值贬值再贬值，却没法用黄金来抗衡。最后人民币也跟着一起跌，因为中国是一定要保持 6.8 : 1 的关系的。人民币一贬值，进口生产原料就贵，自己人在国家内就感觉到这钞票怎么越来越不尽用了，怎么卖肉那里找来的钱都是新钞票？这央行印了多少新钞票啊？

所以这外汇储备的背后是什么？是中国缺少国际投资的眼光和能力。用江主席的话来讲，“你们实在是太Naive（天真）。”

当然每个国家都有很多问题，尤其这种大环境下。前2天，希腊也破产了，弄得欧元跌了很多很多。所以家家都有本难念的经啊。

最为作为我们个人来说，我也就平时看些杂书时事，在博客发发评论，胡哥又不会找我来谈改革开放的下一步的咯？我们小市民，在金融危机下就多攒攒钱，截流工作要做好，等国泰明安了，我们再去投资。

呵呵～以上观点，纯属个人杂谈。

Getting Richer

2008-06-25T14:05:00.001-07:00

Barclays Wealth According to a research report published last year, China's Hong Kong Special Administrative Region density of the world's first millionaire, with millions of dollars of assets in Hong Kong family more than 26 percent and is expected to report in 2017, the Hong Kong millionaire families will be increased to 40.7 percent, The total to 980,000.

In addition, the report specifically mentioned China last year, the most affluent countries in the world ranked seven, 10 years later and is expected to be able to enter the top three.

Barclays Wealth Asia-Pacific Chief Executive Officer Didier von Daeniken pointed out that the Asian wealth is growing rapidly, but also the region's economic structure is undergoing major changes. Education, science and technology, the globalization trend and become a driving force for creating wealth, the global economy to the eastward shift of focus.

China's Export Growth Unexpectedly Accelerates to 28%

2008-06-11T06:27:00.000-07:00

June 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's export growth unexpectedly accelerated in May, easing concern that a strengthening yuan and a slowdown in U.S. demand will trigger an economic slump.

Overseas sales rose 28.1 percent from a year earlier, after gaining a revised 21.9 percent in April, the customs bureau said on its Web site today. That was more than the 20 percent median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Exports to the U.S. accelerated, withstanding a 10 percent gain in the yuan against the dollar in the year through May. Imports jumped 40 percent because of soaring raw-material costs, supporting the central bank's case that inflation is a bigger threat than weakening global demand.

``This is very good news for the central bank, backing up their argument that exports are not collapsing,'' said Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai. ``It gives them more space to raise interest rates and let the yuan appreciate faster to curb inflation.''

The trade surplus was $20.2 billion, down from $22.4 billion a year earlier and less than the $21.3 billion estimate in the survey of economists. For the first five months, the surplus has narrowed 9 percent from a year earlier.

Surging prices for iron ore, crude oil, oil products, coal and soybeans drove the biggest increase in imports in almost four years, according to the customs bureau. The gain was 26.4 percent in April.

U.S. Demand

The yuan rose to the highest since a fixed-exchange rate ended in 2005, trading at 6.9208 versus the dollar as of 4:37 p.m. after closing at 6.9255 yesterday.

Exports to the U.S. rose 9.1 percent in the first five months from a year earlier, up from the 6.9 percent gain through April, the customs bureau said. Shipments to the European Union climbed 27.4 percent, an increase from 25.4 percent.

TCL Corp., China's biggest electronics maker, said mobile- phone exports soared 62 percent in May from a year earlier.

``Export growth held up partly because the U.S. economy appears to be recovering better than expected,'' said Shen Minggao, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Beijing. ``Another factor may be that there were more working days in May than last year, when there was a seven-day holiday.''

The central bank cautioned on June 3 against exaggerating the risk that weakening global demand would lead to a hard landing for the world's fourth-largest economy.

Machinery and electronic exports climbed 59 percent from a year earlier. Trade with India surged 70 percent in the first five months, the quickest gain among China's top 10 trading partners, the customs bureau said.

Inflation Fight

China has already let the yuan gain more than 5 percent versus the U.S. dollar this year, a faster pace than the 7 percent increase for all of 2007. That has cut import costs and also put pressure on exporters by making their products more expensive in overseas markets.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said yesterday that a more flexible currency could be a ``valuable tool'' to help China cool inflation. The U.S. and Europe argue that China's government has kept the yuan artificially weak to help exporters.

Producer prices rose 8.2 percent in May, the biggest increase in more than three years, the statistics bureau said today, indicating consumer-price inflation may rebound.

Consumer prices rose 7.7 percent last month, two government officials said yesterday, citing statistics bureau data. April's 8.5 percent pace was the fastest in almost 12 years.

Banks' Reserves

Besides letting the yuan gain, China has ordered lenders to set aside a record 17.5 percent of their deposits as reserves from June 25 to try to prevent excess cash in the financial system from fueling inflation.

So far, China has kept interest rates on hold this year to avoid attracting more speculative capital from abroad into an economy already flooded with cash. The benchmark one-year lending rate is 7.47 percent, and the equivalent for deposits is 4.14 percent.

The central bank said on June 3 that the world's fastest- growing major economy was shifting from ``heated'' to more stable growth after a 10.6 percent expansion in the first quarter.

Growth will slacken for the rest of 2008 and 2009 on weaker export gains, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on June 4.

UIT

2008-05-13T08:14:00.000-07:00

UIT stands for Unit Investment Trust.

It is an investment company that offers a fixed, unmanaged portfolio, generally of stocks and bonds, as redeemable "units" to investors for a specific period of time. It is designed to provide capital appreciation and/or dividend income.

Unit investment trusts are one of three types of investment companies; the other two are mutual funds and closed-end funds

Each unit typically costs $1,000 and is sold to investors by brokers. UITs can be resold in the secondary market. A UIT may be either a regulated investment corporation (RIC) or a grantor trust. The former is a corporation in which the investors are joint owners; the latter grants investors proportional ownership in the UIT's underlying securities.

Equity UIT is a registered trust in which investors purchase units from a fixed portfolio of equities, which are chosen and managed by a professional money manager. Securities in the trust remain there for the life of the trust, which is most often one year. At that point they can either be liquidated at market value or rolled over into a newer, current version of the trust.

Because investors purchase units of the trust, this investment allows investors to diversify and participate in dividends and capital gains without purchasing a large number of the equities themselves.

There are also various types of equity trust products, allowing investors to choose an investment that closely matches their own risk tolerance and investment goals.

Where Is Sam Going?

2008-01-22T20:39:00.000-08:00

In today's morning, when I opened browser, linking to homepage, finance Yahoo!, I was shocked. Dow down more than 480!

In the day, Fed cut benchmark interest rate 4.25% to 3.5%, the most ambitious cut since 1984. By the end of the day, market was secured by Fed, and went up a little bit.

Actually, Fed is saving the world. European market also gained. In the midnight of Sam, day time of the dragon, Heng Seng Index, Shanghai Composite Index, and Japan's Nekkei Index advanced as well.

Economists still says,"we are currently in the slow economy, not in recession. The fundamental of the States is still in good shape. Bush government has aready 150 billion economy-resucure package for possible emergency.

How the market reflect on Fed and government's action? Who knows. Get some sleep, Sam. You will know it tomorrow.

Good Luck!

Nintendo Rocks

2007-09-27T16:52:00.000-07:00

The FT writes that Nintendo is now the No.2 market cap company in Japan, trailing only Toyota (TM).
While this may say something about the company's video game platform sales lead over the Microsoft (MSFT) Xbox and Sony (SNE) PlayStation 3, it says a good deal more about how investors value certain parts of the economy.
Companies like NTT (NTT), one of the world's largest telecom companies, Japan Steel, ad agency giant Dentsu, bank Mitsui Trust, and brokerage Nomura have lagged. Much like shares in the US markets, technology leaders are beginning to take over the market cap tables.
Nintendo is now viewed as a company with products that sell well in Japan, the US, and Europe. But, video games may be the ultimate in cross-border products. There is nothing to prevent them from doing well in huge emerging markets like India and China. The Wii and Nintendo portable are not expensive to make and not expensive to ship. They are not expensive to buy, either.
Nintendo is a symbol of what Wall St. is looking for in the future. A simple company with massive markets.

Steven Jobs Is Too Slow

2007-06-23T19:59:00.000-07:00

A slim white, GSM gadget, equipped with Wi-Fi, a 3.5 inch screen, and built-in iPod will launch on June 29, less than one week away from now. Sure, you know what I am talking about. That's iPhone.

But what if I tell you, Chinese has already enjoyed in "iPhone"? Impossible? Okay, let me introduce the Chinese "iPhone".
The iPone's twin brother in China is called "CECT P168" which looks 95% similar to Mr. Jobs's iPhone.
You probably was shocked by the picture. I was. I feel Chinese is born with the talent of imitation-- even without exactly knowing about the model they are copying.

However, they just could copy the appearance of iPhone, but the navigation system, and functions of this brother are not iPhone at all.

(above and right: what the cell phone can do are just ordinary jobs.)

It is true that developing countries hardly can create something innovative by themselves, the fastest ways they can catch up industrialized countries are learning and imitation. But from the fact we can see, Chinese are not learning the technology behind the iPhone, but just making up cell phones with a iPhone's face. I hope Steven Jobs will not read my blog, otherwise he will be very upset. Actually, many American companies are still struggling to find a market access in China, mostly due to the lack of appropriate protection of privacy and intelligent property.

Same problem Starbucks faces in China. Lots of variation of Starbucks brand in the streets.

(above: Suppose you are walking along a street in China, and want to buy a coffee. If you look up, and find cafe place with a brand on the left in the picture, will you go into the store? After you drink it, probably you will say, "~~Starbucks tastes different in China."

(below: other various versions of Starbucks, but taste different)

a Guide to U.S. Newspapers

2007-06-16T07:29:00.000-07:00

The Wall Street Journal is read by the people who run the country.

The New York Times is read by people who think they run the country.

The Washington Post is read by people who think they should run the country.

USA Today is read by people who think they ought to run the country but don't really understand the Washington Post. They do, however like the smog statistics shown in pie charts.

The Los Angeles Times is read by people who wouldn't mind running the country, if they could spare the time, and if they didn't have to leave L.A. to do it.

The Boston Globe is read by people whose parents used to run the country.

The New York Daily News is read by people who aren't too sure who's running the country, and don't really care as long as they can get a seat on the train.

The New York Post is read by people who don't care who's running the country either, as long as they do something really scandalous, preferably while intoxicated.

The San Francisco Chronicle is read by people who aren't sure there is a country, or that anyone is running it; but whoever it is, they oppose all that they stand for. There are occasional exceptions if the leaders are handicapped minority, feministic atheist dwarfs, who also happen to be illegal aliens from any country or galaxy as long as they are democrats.

The Miami Herald is read by people who are running another country, but need the baseball scores.

China's New Culture of Cool

2007-06-10T19:13:00.000-07:00

Recently, I just finished a book, China's New Culture of Cool. It is a sort of fresh book, issued in last year.

The book focuses on the middle class in today's fastest-growing country. The book is based on ten-year continuous research tracking on China's economy growth and the shift in people's understanding on life value. The authors analyze middle class's consumption on Yi (life style), Shi (food), Zhu (living), and Xing (mobility). The tone of the book is very positive, like people's life is getting better and better, more and more middle class can afford luxury clothes and vehicles, and new generations are getting closer to those in developed countries...etc. The book cites lots of statistic data and studies, trying to convince readers that, the middle class will play an important role in a global scale in terms of its economic size and cultural influence.

An interesting point, the book once mentions that China is no longer socialism, but it is on the track of modern capitalism. The central government releases more and more freedom to local government and his people, which stimulates the wealth of middle class and the health of their personal life.(above: the book cover--girls like going to night clubs, making new friends, building up and extending their social networking.)

I have not been in my home country for 2 years. But I think this book pretty much can tell the actual situation in those big cities, such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing. However, around 80% of Chinese does not live in those fancy areas. The overlooked issue on the gap between urban and rural areas could be potentially dangerous to economic and social stability of China.

Overall, it is right book to you, if you want to know more about those cool things in big cities. It also provides a good guidance, if you will travel to China.

Expense on Food

2007-06-08T22:18:00.000-07:00

How much does your family spend on food weekly?
It depends, right?
Let's take a look at the food expense of families from different countries.

NO.1
(above)
The Melander's from Bargteheide, Germany
Food Expense/Week: $ 500.07

NO.2 (above)

The Revis's from California, U.S.A
Food Expense/Week: $341.98

NO. 3 (above)
The Ukita's from Kodaira, Japan
Food Expense/Week: $317.25

NO. 4 (above)
The Manzo's from Cicilia, Italy
Food Expense/Week: $260.11

NO. 5 (above)
The Bainton's from Cllingbourne Ducis, UK
Food Expense/Week: $253.15

NO. 6 (above)
The Al Haggan's from Kuwait City, Kuwait
Food Expense/Week: $221.45

NO. 7 (above)
The Casales's from Cuernavaca, Mexico
Food Expense/Week: $189.09

NO. 8 (above)
The Dong's from Beijing, China
Food Expense/Week: $155.60

NO. 9 (above)
The Sobczynscy's from Konstancin-Jeziorna, Poland
Food Expense/Week: $151.27

NO. 10 (above)
The Ahmed's from Cairo, Egypt
Food Expense/Week: $68.53

NO. 11 (above)
The Batsuuri's from Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Food Expense/Week: $40.02

NO. 12 (above)
The Ayme's from Tingo, Ecuador
Food Expense/Week: $31.55

NO. 13 (above)
The Aboubakar's from a refugee campus in Chad
Food Expense/Week: $1.23

Innovation vs Beautification

2007-06-05T08:53:00.001-07:00

Who is playing a more important role in cruel competition of any industry in the 21st century, innovation or beautification? I bet, most of you would say, "of course, innovation." It is a right answer in most cases. But here , I will argue beautification is as important as innovation.

(above: the world first Trinitron TV, Sony)

Let's take a look at Sony, and Samsum. Sony is still the most profitable giant in electric industry. People like Sony's products, more precisely, Sony's ideas in their products. To some extend, Sony changes the way we live, from walkman to minidisc recorder, from PlayStation to PSP, from Trinitron TV to recent OLED technology. Statistics show that Sony spends 60% revenue into exploring new technology. It is very safe to say, respecting intelligence and encouraging innovation are the key elements in Sony's culture. But if we look back to April 24, and 25, 2003, the share price of Sony decreased by 40%, due to the great loss in the first season in 2003, which is recognized as "Sony Shock" in stock history. What was worse, later, Sony announced 20,000 job cuts over three years, so as to trim costs. And now, the sale of Playstation 3 is not as good as Sony expected. As you can see, today Sony is facing lots of problems. (above: OLED technology, Sony allows you to fold your screen.)

How comes? It does not make any sense, like a smart straight-A student once got a C in his transcript. Let's hold the question for a while, and take a look at Samsung.

When Sony is in the trouble , Samsung, another electronic giant is waking up. Samsung rapidly graped the electronic market where Sony overlooked, such as TV sections. Now Samsung is the world biggest plasma TV producer. Samsung refrigerator is a famous brand in housewares. Leaving iPod aside, the market proportion of Samsung's MP3 is greater than that of Sony's MP3. Astonishingly, the chunk of money they put into brand-new technology is very tiny. I believe, it is only single digit percent number.

(right: Samsung adds a speaker to normal MP3 player. New technology? Not really, but really eye-catching!)

How comes? If you carefully look at Samsung's products, you will find they are very easy to use, very nice to fit your outfits, and price is relatively cheaper than Sony's. Study shows that Samsung saves money by transfering technology patents, rather than inventing new technology by himself, and spends more money into analysis on their customers' life style, and beautification of their products. Although Sony's stuffs look also very nice, Sony's taste is universal. Sony pays less attention on their local customers. If you go to browse some forums, like cnet.com, the feedbacks on Sony's goods actually are not always good--"not as smart as it looks like." "the MP3 is not very compatible with my system."...

(left: a beautiful device whose front side is a cellphone, the back is a MP3. New technology? Not really, but really cool!)

However, Apple is a good example of integration of both innovation and beautification. Under the leadership of Steven Jobs, 30% of revenue is re-invested in to new technology. Meanwhile, Apple also tries to trace people's taste, such as shrinking iPod shuffle's size, painting lovely white and black color on macbooks. The result is more and more PC person become Mac person.

All in all, innovation is still critical in today's competition. But if you over-emphasize the importance of new technology, going crazy for that. It's not a good sign.

Behind the Collapse

2007-06-04T21:23:00.000-07:00

Shanghai Composite Index keeps going down from 4300s to 3400s only in 5 days! Except for the impact from stamp duty mentioned in the last post, many sad news depressed China's stock market recently, such as, the outflow of investment (if you look at OBV, a steep downward sloping line will show up.), the death of Vice Premier Huang Ju, the fear of 18th anniversary of Tiananmen Square protests, and many many noisy rumors.

(above: on June 4, more than 500 stocks' price slumped by 10%, the maximum daily descending amount in China's stock market.)

"Communism knows bad things will happen, but they won't tell ya when they will happen." once I heard in a business forum regarding China's overheating economy. Now, these words can be applied to the shock of today's stock market. Fears aroused at least 2 weeks before the descents, but nobody knew when it would exactly take place, until the central government triggered the stamp tax.

The bubble burst, but how much it will hurt China's economy? In the article, The Great Wall of Money, Economist magazine argues that, China's economy may be less vulnerable than it appears.

Briefly, several reasons are associated with that:

First, the number of shareholders is a small proportion of national population, just round 7%. However, the number is U.S.A is about 50%. So the slump in share price will not spread to the whole country.
(above: I would argue, although few people are doing stock, compared with national population, it is still a big hurt to some families. Especially those old people who put lots of life-time savings into stock market, and get nothing back. )

Second, people's investment on stock market is still relatively small. Equities account for less than 15% of Chinese households' total financial assets, compared with half of those of American households' (including their pension funds). Chinese still save a lot.

Third, the way Chinese businessmen finance their companies is re-investing companies' own profits (about 60%) and making loan from banks (about 20%). However, only 10% is fund by issuing stock. So the collapse of share price is supposed to hurt companies performance as much as we worry about.

Then Economist concludes that, based on above analysis, present 500 points drop, even more in the future, will not be a big attack on China's overall economy.

Well, We all hope it would be a modest impact on China. Let's pray, and we will see.

The Central Power

2007-05-30T21:32:00.000-07:00

On May 23rd, government officials stood out and clarified the rumor regarding that government scheduled to increase stamp tax was wrong. "We never receive any information about the change in stamp tax." one of officials said to the media. But yesterday, May 29th, stamp tax increased by 3 times, from 1‰ to 3‰ !

Stock market, which has already been pushed to a unthinkable and unsustainable point, suddenly shocked. Shanghai Composite Index fell by almost 300 points, closed at 4053. More than 900 stocks fell. Most stocks in my personal portfolio decreased by 10%, the maximum daily decreasing amount, according to the regulation of China's stock market. What's worse, ¥1,234,500,000,000 (approximately $161 billion) were retreated from the market in one day!

Holy crap!

I called my parents, telling them, "I am very sorry for the loss I made." But my father said he was very sorry for the unreliable government. Today, the story has been widely reported and spreaded in China: the Central Government adjusted the stamp tax in the midnight right before the following trading day! Wow~~The central power--you just can rock anything at will.

(above: Holy Crap! How could you hurt me in this way?)

There are sizzling discussions on the web forum, possibly the only way most Chinese feel safe to threw out their opinions. Obviously, on forums, everyone is pissed off. Many critic voices have raised.

Actually, the central government is gaining great amount of revenue on stamp tax from stock trading. The tax revenue on stamp increased by 515.9%, ¥ 12.2 billion (approximately $1.6 billion) more tax payments in the first season of this year! Thank for your people--they paid you so well !

Folks say the government is too greedy, however, the officials argued that it was the most efficient way to cool down the overheating market. From the historic view, the government's action was right. Every time they increased the stamp tax, the stock market collapsed.

Well, if central government wanted the market going back to the normal railroad, they did right thing. However, what they sacrificed is the trust from people. Do you think the "unshakable" Central Power will keep powerful without the public support? I strongly doubt that.

Beat the Market---ATR

2007-05-26T17:10:00.000-07:00

The Average True Range (ATR) indicator measures a security's volatility. As such, the indicator does not provide an indication of price direction or duration, simply the degree of price movement or volatility.

True Range (TR) which is defined as the greatest of the following:

The current High less the current Low.
The absolute value of the current High less the previous Close.
The absolute value of the current Low less the previous Close.

(above: the example how to calculate Daily TR. ATR is simply the average of last 14-day TR)

A detail picture showing how to classify 3 different situations when the difference between current high and current low is relatively small:

Extreme levels of ATR (both high and low) can mark turning points or the beginning of a move. As a volatility-based indicator like Bollinger Bands, the ATR cannot predict direction or duration, simply activity levels. Low levels indicate quiet trading (small ranges), and high levels indicate violent trading (large ranges). A prolonged period of low ATR readings might indicate consolidation and the beginning of a continuation move or reversal. High ATR readings usually result from a sharp advance or decline and are unlikely to be sustained for extended periods.

Beat the Market---ADX

2007-05-26T15:52:00.000-07:00

Average Directional Index (ADX) evaluates the strength of a current trend, be it up or down. It's important to determine whether the market is trending or trading (moving sideways), because certain indicators give more useful results depending on the market doing one or the other.

The ADX is an oscillator that fluctuates between 0 and 100. Even though the scale is from 0 to 100, readings above 60 are relatively rare. Low readings, below 20, indicate a weak trend and high readings, above 40, indicate a strong trend. The indicator does not grade the trend as bullish or bearish, but merely assesses the strength of the current trend. A reading above 40 can indicate a strong downtrend as well as a strong uptrend.

ADX can also be used to identify potential changes in a market from trending to non-trending. When ADX begins to strengthen from below 20 and moves above 20, it is a sign that the trading range is ending and a trend is developing. When ADX begins to weaken from above 40 and moves below 40, it is a sign that the current trend is losing strength and a trading range could develop. (below: an example of ADX analysis. Keep in mind: a greater the value of ADX, the stronger trend of price)

ADX is derived from two other indicators, also developed by Wilder, called the Positive Directional Indicator (sometimes written +DI) and the Negative Directional Indicator (-DI).

When the ADX Indicator is selected, SharpCharts plots the Positive Directional Indicator (+DI), Negative Directional Indicator (-DI) and Average Directional Index (ADX). With the Red, White and Green color scheme on SharpCharts, ADX is the thick black line with less fluctuation, +DI is green and -DI is red. +DI measures the force of the up moves and -DI measures the force of the down moves over a set period. The default setting is 14 periods, but users are encouraged to modify these settings according to their personal preferences.

In its most basic form, buy and sell signals can be generated by +DI/-DI crosses. A buy signal occurs when +DI moves above -DI and a sell signal when -DI moves above the +DI. Be careful, though; when a security is in a trading range, this system may produce many whipsaws. As with most technical indicators, +DI/-DI crosses should be used in conjunction with other aspects of technical analysis.

The ADX combines +DI with -DI, and then smooths the data with a moving average to provide a measurement of trend strength. Because it uses both +DI and -DI, ADX does not offer any indication of trend direction, just strength. Generally, readings above 40 indicate a strong trend and readings below 20 a weak trend. To catch a trend in its early stages, you might look for stocks with ADX that advances above 20. Conversely, an ADX decline from above 40 might signal that the current trend is weakening and a trading range is developing.

Bear in mind that increasing the number of periods will smooth the ADX line (making it less volatile), and display more significant readings. The readings, however, will present more of a lag. For example, if charting 30 periods, readings over 40 become stronger indicators of a trend. However, the trend may have already started and could have been caught earlier less periods were used.

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www.stockcharts.com

A Big Deal in Germany

2007-05-25T21:36:00.001-07:00

A Chinese private owned logistics services firm, Link Global, finalizes the deal to buy a German airport for ¥1 billion, approximately $130 million dollars. It is the first time that Chinese has an airport in the Continent.

The Chinese firms final won the bid by beating 10 competitors, and signed the formal contract after a pre-agreement. It is an ambitious investment. German officials said, last month that Link Global would invest 20 million euros (27 million dollars) in the airport over the next two years, but company officials said Thursday that its investment "should be more" than 20 million euros.

(left: the Parchim airport bird-eye view from Google earth)

The German airport, Parchim, is near the city of Schwerin, midway between Berlin and Hamburg. The business of the provincial airport was not quite good, according to the report from German. It lost money, and now specializes in air freight only. Later, The site is being sold by the county of Parchim, after an earlier bid by Britain's Wiggins Group collapsed in 2005.

How Does Stock Market Change Chinese's Life?

2007-05-25T13:17:00.000-07:00

The thousands of ordinary Chinese who are signing up each day to trade shares are not too concerned about the conventional ways of valuing a stock, but they need to know the difference between a "ghost" and a "black horse".

Chinese have combined a traditional delight in word-play with their new-found passion for stocks to create a rich supply of colloquial jargon for investing that is bandied around brokerage offices.

“Ghost shares” are highly risky, but “black horses” have beaten expectations. Buying cheap to sell high later is known as “fighting for the hat”, while selling at a loss to avoid further losses is “meat slicing”. Investors who think a piece of news will boost prices claim to be “lifting the sedan chair”.

(above: especially, for those old people with less education, these stock terminologies are sort of difficult for them to communicate. They just need a new stock language by adding their own understanding. Creative, aren't they?)

When a fund manager was sacked last week for allegedly manipulating share prices, websites hummed with talk of “rat investors”, the term for insider traders.

There is even a Chinese phrase that could define the current boom. On top of bulls and bears, there is the “deer market”, when large groups of amateur, short-term speculators cause markets to move in erratic jolts.

The jargon is being quickly learned by the long lines of new day-traders who have helped push share prices up 52 per cent this year – on top of last year's 130 per cent rise – but who are making the market look increasingly over-valued.

Despite an interest rate rise on Friday aimed at cooling the market, retail investors ignored the messages from Beijing and opened 287,000 trading accounts on Monday, 35,000 more than on Friday.

The explosion in day-trading has created some unintended consequences in Shanghai in the form of unwashed dinner dishes, badly-ironed shirts and dusty floors. In recent weeks the city has developed a shortage of ayis, the domestic helpers who do chores in the homes of middle-class families, because some have found more gainful employment playing the market.

Sheng Min, who runs a Shanghai agency that recruits ayis, says his company started to face problems finding new domestic helpers in April because of the stock market fever and currently has 50 per cent fewer women on its books than usual.

“We occasionally receive phone calls from employers complaining about their ayis,” he said. “Some of them seem to be more interested in chatting about stocks with their friends than working.”

(above: women do less housekeepings, but frequently go to stock trading center)

Zhang Wei works most weekday mornings in several houses around the city, but for the last few weeks she has been visiting a brokerage in the Hongkou district of Shanghai in the afternoons. “Last month I made almost half my salary from investing,” she said.

With an eye on the new day-traders, a man placed an advert on the Taobao auction site last week selling signed doctors' certificates for one month off work for RMB 100, approximately $13. The advert has since been removed.

Cynics would say speculator-ayis are a sure sign of a bubble, but if everyone continues buying, prices will keep going up – even in a deer market.

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source: www.FTChinese.com

Ready to Shake the World

2007-05-24T20:40:00.000-07:00

On this Tuesday, China, for the first time, invest $3 billion in a foreign company, Blackstone, a America's leading private equity firm.

It is not a secret, that China has enormous amount of foreign currency reserves--more than $1.2 trillion, and this number is accumulating at the rate of at least $200 billion a year! Why does communism keep so many US dollars? Why don't they just invest it? The basic macroeconomic knowledge tells us that, since China' monetary policy is fixed currency exchange rate, it is a better idea to reserve large amount of foreign currency, in order to bring up or down exchange rate when it is not on the fixed level. But China is absorbing more dollars than he needs. Moreover, US dollars keep depreciating in recent years. So it is a big loss on the value of China's foreign currency reserves. In the other day, Bank of China announced that they would allow a relative flexible $/¥ floating ratio, in order to cool down the White House's continuous complains about the trade deficit between U.S.A. and PRC. The more ambiguity in the $/¥ exchange rate, means a potential greater depreciation of $, which is not good to China.

Second, it is time to diversify his financial portfolio. As a developing country, China's capital market is not mature, and it's fragile under the influence of its social problems, such as disparity of between low-income and high-income classes, high unemployment rate, government corruption, environment damage, etc. These potential problems occur with the rapid development of China, and China's government has almost no control on these issues. Once those bads things go to a threshold level , it would be a terrible disaster to China's economy and cause political crisis.

Thirdly, China is seeking for a high return foreign assets. China still needs more money on their infrastructures, national Medicare fundings, education, and so forth.

With this kind of analysis, the central government had better use his US dollars, instead of holding them on hands. Although there are some limitation on the trading of those $3-billion worth shares. in the next few years, "Blackstone is a profitable investment. " a Chinese government officer once said.

To watch the report from BBC News, please click it here.

China not only aims at the investment on American assets, but also keeps eye on European and African financial assets. They could be the next investment destinations.

So far, it's hard to say Blackstone group is a wise investment or not based on unpredictable future value. However, it's safe to say that China is on the way of being a real global player.

Is the Ice Melting?

2007-05-21T23:29:00.000-07:00

The reciprocating visit to Japan by Premier Wen Jiabao, after Shinzo Abe's ice-breaking visit to China in 2006, is hailed as ice-melting trip. Media on both sides give positive reports and comments on this event, which is not a usual case.

This year is the The 30th Anniversary of the Normalization of Japan-China Relations ". With the raise of the dragon, Japan pays more and more attention, positively and negatively on the relationship with his neighbor. On the side of China, central government realizes the importance of his biggest trade partner (total trade between China and Japan amounted to $214.62 billion.), meanwhile, China also keeps calling for official and concrete apologies for the WWII.

(above: left, Jiabao Wen; right, Shinzo Abe)

There are lots of conflicts between these two neighbors, except for the hatred caused by WWII.

For example, Japan is afraid of the Chinese rapid expansion in national defense expense and modernizations of military power in recent years. Especially, China has the unclear technology. Because Japan once was bombed by two atom bombs, Japanese extremely worries about this. Now, the close friend of Chinese, North Korean, also commands the unclear technology, which nerves Japan a lot and accelerates the marriage of Japan and USA.

Another sensitive issue is about Taiwan. It is more complicated than I can explain. Basically, China is hesitating to take military actions to Taiwan, due to the possible interference of America. If America get involved in this battle, as an alien, Japan claims that they have the obligation to help America.

The above issues are the main icebergs between China and Japan: WWII historical hatred, Upgraded military thread, and Taiwan issue. We don't expect those problems would be solved in the primers' visits. It takes time to these two countries to find common language to talk, and common benefits to share. But, personally, I hope one day, the Asian Union would occur, following the successful example of EU.

What Determines Our Wealth?

2007-05-21T21:15:00.000-07:00

If we want to establish a model that what determine people's wealth, we would put many variables for this regression model, such as, job, age, gross family wealth...as many explanatory variables as you can image.

Wealth vs. IQ

In the model of wealth, I bet the one you won't miss is IQ. Specifically, it is reasonable to expect that positive relation between people's wealth and their IQ. It seems always true that the smarter you are, the more you tend to earn.

However, surprisingly, it is not the case! In the article "You Don't Have to Be Einstein to Get Rich", Ohio State economics Professor, Jay Zagorsky even concludes that, "Intelligence is not a factor for explaining wealth. "

(above: the normal distribution of human being's IQ)

Profssor Zagorsky's findings in his research show that, "in fact, people at the middle of the smarts spectrum have the fewest money problems."

The reason why smarter people is not richer is that, their anticipation on future high income encourages them to spend more and save less today. However, Professor Zagorsky suggests, it is not a good lifetime investment strategy.

If you don't believe the result as I did, take a look at the article.

Wealth vs. Weight

It seems Professor Zagorsky has lots of unusual thoughts on people's wealth. In his another research, he adds another interesting and weird variable to our model, weight. In the article, "Dieting Linked to Increased Wealth, Study Finds", he concludes that the lighter your body is, the heavier your wealth will become, generally.

For example, white women who dropped their body mass index score (BMI) – a standard measure of obesity – by 10 points saw a wealth increase of $11,880. White men saw an increase of $12,720 for a similar drop, while black women increased wealth by $4,480.

A more general study shows that, a one unit increase in a young person's BMI was associated with a $1,300 or 8 percent reduction in wealth. But the changes varied dramatically by ethnicity and gender. Interestingly, your wealth won't get a dramatic change until you lose lots of weight.

(above: a golden wealth pig money pot. In Chinese culture, fat pig figure symbolizes wealthy, upper-class, which sort of contradicts with Professor Zagorsky research results.)

Disappointingly, the study does not show how weight affects wealth or vice versa. One possible explanation on the relation between wealth and weight is associated with people's aesthetic judgment: overweighted people is discriminated, and beauty is admired in employment.

Now, do you have any new idea on wealth? Let me know.

Economics of Happiness

2007-05-21T21:00:00.000-07:00

What does it take to be happy? In our pursuit of wealth and success, this question is often overlooked. Happiness is also ignored in traditional economics. There is a recent trend, however, to base the nation’s well-being not on GDP or GNP, but on its Gross National Happiness (GNH). While this may seem unusual, there are a range of economists suggesting that happiness is already an economic indicator and that it can be measured.

This Friday, Professor Kimball, as one of these trend-setting economists from the University of Michigan, gave a lecture on his research how we measure happiness from an economist's perspective. (left: Professor Kimball)

How we value happiness? How can you say " I am happier than you." or " today, I feel happier than yesterday." Professor Kimball defines happiness in an interesting yet intuitive way--we measure happiness by how much we can sacrifice for that, i.e, your preference for happiness. By this definition, we can know what people care about, and their utility on that.

But Professor Kimball also pointed that happiness is not exactly equal to utility. Historically, people's life standard is much better than that 30 years ago. In terms of utility, we can say, people are better off. However, the survey conducted by the UM Survey Center that people still face lots of emotion problems, burdens which make them not happy. Another example is cited from immigration case. Many Mexicans want to go to America. Annually, lots of Mexicans immigrate to this country legally or illegally. Those employed immigrations can earn more money than they could in Mexico. Their life standards get promoted. However, on the other hand, their social status is lower than that in their own country--discrimination, loneliness, homesickness, etc. make them not really happy. So, we cannot simply equate happiness and utility.

Professor Kimball also talked about the short-term happiness and long-term happiness. Good news or bad news usually affect people's short-term feelings. When you get promoted by your boss, or your daughter get administration letter from Harvard University, you must be very happy, and even would have party to celebrate that. But gradually your happiness will go back to long-term standards. The point is that, your short-term happiness is more sensitive and long-term happiness is much more stable, based on personality.

The beauty of this research is that, we can apply this theory to serious business. For example, next time, the Universal can value how much happiness their movies can bring to audience before they start to shot the films. Steven Jobs can estimate how much happiness Beyonce's songs can create before he decides to put it on iTune store. So there is a lots of potential application on this theory, isn't it?

Time to Cool Down

2007-05-14T20:33:00.000-07:00

In the past one week, foreign investors have retreated 5.74 billion US dollars from China's mutual funds, despite of both 4.35 % high return in past few weeks and the bullish stock market performance.

Recently, lots of concern have been raised that the stock bubble will blow out soon. Many economists, college professors, analysts from well-know i-banking, and even government officers stand out in front of medias say, "it is time to take action to cool down." However, the stock index doesn't follow their will. Yesterday, Shanghai Composite Index continue to rock, going as high as 4080, another record point.

（Left: SHA Index jumped to a new record point.)

(Left: His stock must rise at that moment.)

My Mom also told me some funny stories on the phone--People can wait for the whole afternoon to open a stock account; non-economics-major college students go to finance classes, and a local newspaper reported that a college students manages a portfolio worth 500,000 RMB (approximately 62,500 US dolloars) for his relatives and friends. Now, he is just sitting in front of 3 LCDs from 9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. (the market trading time) , and does not attend classes any more.

It is time to cool down, probably not only just the stock market, but also people's "one-night-millionaire" dreams.

Is it on fire?

2007-05-09T10:28:00.000-07:00

China's benchmark index ended above the key 4000 level for the first time, amid a strong demand for blue-chip stocks that outweighed profit-taking pressure.

Other regional markets closed higher Wednesday, with Japanese markets gaining as investors sold NTT DoCoMo and other blue-chip stocks following a flat performance on Wall Street ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting on interest rates.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both Class A and Class B shares, ended up 1.6% at 4013.09, an all-time high. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.3% to 1111.29, also a record close.

The Shanghai index more than doubled last year and has risen another 50% so far this year, analysts said. Attracted by the strong performance of the stock market and the potential for high investment returns, retail investors have been pouring into the market in the past months.

Investors opened 4.79 million new Class A-share accounts in April, compared with 3.08 million for the whole of 2006, the state-run Shanghai Securities News reported Wednesday.

Large-capitalized blue chip Industrial & Commercial Bank of China rose 5.5% and Bank of China gained 7.8%. Baoshan Iron & Steel rose 4.7% and China Yangtze Power gained 2.9%.

source: Wall Street Journal

Beat the Market---OBV

2007-04-10T21:37:00.000-07:00

Joe Granville introduced the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator in his 1963 book, Granville's New Key to Stock Market Profits. This was one of the first and most popular indicators to measure positive and negative volume flow. The concept behind the indicator: volume precedes price. OBV is a simple indicator that adds a period's volume when the close is up and subtracts the period's volume when the close is down. A cumulative total of the volume additions and subtractions forms the OBV line. This line can then be compared with the price chart of the underlying security to look for divergence or confirmations.

As stated above, OBV is calculated by adding the day's volume to a running cumulative total when the security's price closes up, and subtracts the volume when it closes down.

For example,

1) if today the closing price is greater than yesterday's closing price, then the new

OBV = Yesterday's OBV + Today's Volume

2) If today the closing price is less than yesterday's closing price, then the new

OBV = Yesterday's OBV - Today's Volume

3) If today the closing price is equal to yesterday's closing price, then the new

OBV = Yesterday's OBV

The idea behind the OBV indicator is that changes in the OBV will precede price changes. A rising volume can indicate the presence of smart money flowing into a security. Then once the public follows suit, the security's price will likewise rise.

Like other indicators, the OBV indicator will take a direction. A rising (bullish) OBV line indicates that the volume is heavier on up days. If the price is likewise rising, then the OBV can serve as a confirmation of the price uptrend. In such a case, the rising price is the result of an increased demand for the security, which is a requirement of a healthy uptrend.

However, if prices are moving higher while the volume line is dropping, a negative divergence is present. This divergence suggests that the uptrend is not healthy and should be taken as a warning signal that the trend will not persist.

The numerical value of OBV is not important, but rather the direction of the line. A user should concentrate on the OBV trend and its relationship with the security's price.

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Source: www.stockcharts.com

Beat the Market---Williams %R

2007-04-05T22:51:00.000-07:00

Developed by Larry Williams, Williams %R is a momentum indicator that works much like the Stochastic Oscillator. It is especially popular for measuring overbought and oversold. The scale ranges from 0 to -100 with readings from 0 to -20 considered overbought, and readings from -80 to -100 considered oversold.

William %R, sometimes referred to as %R, shows the relationship of the close relative to the high-low range over a set period of time. The nearer the close is to the top of the range, the nearer to zero (higher) the indicator will be. The nearer the close is to the bottom of the range, the nearer to -100 (lower) the indicator will be. If the close equals the high of the high-low range, then the indicator will show 0 (the highest reading). If the close equals the low of the high-low range, then the result will be -100 (the lowest reading).

%R = [(highest high over ? periods - close)/(highest high over ? periods - lowest low over ? periods)] * -100

Typically, Williams %R is calculated using 14 periods and can be used on intraday, daily, weekly or monthly data. The time frame and number of periods will likely vary according to desired sensitivity and the characteristics of the individual security.

It is important to remember that overbought does not necessarily imply time to sell and oversold does not necessarily imply time to buy. A security can be in a downtrend, become oversold and remain oversold as the price continues to trend lower. Once a security becomes overbought or oversold, traders should wait for a signal that a price reversal has occurred. One method might be to wait for Williams %R to cross above or below -50 for confirmation. Price reversal confirmation can also be accomplished by using other indicators or aspects of technical analysis in conjunction with Williams %R.

One method of using Williams %R might be to identify the underlying trend and then look for trading opportunities in the direction of the trend. In an uptrend, traders may look to oversold readings to establish long positions. In a downtrend, traders may look to overbought readings to establish short positions.

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Source: www.stockcharts.com

Beat the Market---RSI

2007-04-05T22:49:00.000-07:00

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an extremely useful and popular momentum oscillator. The RSI compares the magnitude of a stock's recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100. It takes a single parameter, the number of time periods to use in the calculation. Wilder, the father of RSI, recommends using 14 periods.

To simplify the formula, the RSI has been broken down into its basic components which are the Average Gain, the Average Loss, the First RS, and the subsequent Smoothed RS's.

For a 14-period RSI, the Average Gain equals the sum total all gains divided by 14. Even if there are only 5 gains (losses), the total of those 5 gains (losses) is divided by the total number of RSI periods in the calculation (14 in this case). The Average Loss is computed in a similar manner.

Calculation of the First RS value is straightforward: divide the Average Gain by the Average Loss. All subsequent RS calculations use the previous period's Average Gain and Average Loss for smoothing purposes. See the "Smoothed RS" formula above for details.

Note 1: It is important to remember that the Average Gain and Average Loss are not true averages! Instead of dividing by the number of gaining (losing) periods, total gains (losses) are always divided by the specified number of time periods - 14 in this case.

When the Average Gain is greater than the Average Loss, the RSI rises because RS will be greater than 1. Conversely, when the average loss is greater than the average gain, the RSI declines because RS will be less than 1. The last part of the formula ensures that the indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. Note: If the Average Loss ever becomes zero, RSI becomes 100 by definition.

Note 2: The more data points that are used to calculate the RSI, the more accurate the results. The smoothing factor is a continuous calculation that - in theory - takes into account all of the closing values in the data set. If you start an RSI calculation in the middle of an existing data set, your values will only approximate the true RSI value. SharpCharts uses at least 250 data points prior to the starting date of any chart (assuming that much data exists) when calculating its RSI values. To duplicate its RSI number, you'll need to use at least that much data also.

Overbought/Oversold

Wilder recommended using 70 and 30 and overbought and oversold levels respectively. Generally, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish for the underlying stock. Conversely, if the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. Some traders identify the long-term trend and then use extreme readings for entry points. If the long-term trend is bullish, then oversold readings could mark potential entry points.

Divergences

Buy and sell signals can also be generated by looking for positive and negative divergences between the RSI and the underlying stock. For example, consider a falling stock whose RSI rises from a low point of (for example) 15 back up to say, 55. Because of how the RSI is constructed, the underlying stock will often reverse its direction soon after such a divergence. As in that example, divergences that occur after an overbought or oversold reading usually provide more reliable signals.

Centerline Crossover

The centerline for RSI is 50. Readings above and below can give the indicator a bullish or bearish tilt. On the whole, a reading above 50 indicates that average gains are higher than average losses and a reading below 50 indicates that losses are winning the battle. Some traders look for a move above 50 to confirm bullish signals or a move below 50 to confirm bearish signals.

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Source: www.stockcharts.com

Beat the Market--CCI

2007-04-05T20:39:00.000-07:00

Commodity Channel Index (CCI) was designed to identify cyclical turns in commodities. The assumption behind the indicator is that commodities (or stocks or bonds) move in cycles, with highs and lows coming at periodic intervals. Werecommended using 1/3 of a complete cycle (low to low or high to high) as a time frame for the CCI. (Note: Determination of the cycle's length is independent of the CCI.) If the cycle runs 60 days (a low about every 60 days), then a 20-day CCI would be recommended. For the purpose of this example, a 20-day CCI is used.

There are 4 steps involved in the calculation of the CCI:

Calculate the last period's Typical Price (TP) = (H+L+C)/3 where H = high, L = low, and C = close.
Calculate the 20-period Simple Moving Average of the Typical Price (SMATP).
Calculate the Mean Deviation. First, calculate the absolute value of the difference between the last period's SMATP and the typical price for each of the past 20 periods. Add all of these absolute values together and divide by 20 to find the Mean Deviation.
The final step is to apply the Typical Price (TP), the Simple Moving Average of the Typical Price (SMATP), the Mean Deviation and a Constant (.015) to the following formula:

CCI = ( Typical Price - SMATP ) / ( .015 X Mean Deviation )

For scaling purposes, we set the constant at .015 to ensure that approximately 70 to 80 percent of CCI values would fall between -100 and +100. The CCI fluctuates above and below zero. The percentage of CCI values that fall between +100 and -100 will depend on the number of periods used. A shorter CCI will be more volatile with a smaller percentage of values between +100 and -100. Conversely, the more periods used to calculate the CCI, the higher the percentage of values between +100 and -100.

Trading guidelines for the CCI focused on movements above +100 and below -100 to generate buy and sell signals. Because about 70 to 80 percent of the CCI values are between +100 and -100, a buy or sell signal will be in force only 20 to 30 percent of the time. When the CCI moves above +100, a security is considered to be entering into a strong uptrend and a buy signal is given. The position should be closed when the CCI moves back below +100. When the CCI moves below -100, the security is considered to be in a strong downtrend and a sell signal is given. The position should be closed when the CCI moves back above -100.

Since original guidelines, traders have also found the CCI valuable for identifying reversals. The CCI is a versatile indicator capable of producing a wide array of buy and sell signals.

CCI can be used to identify overbought and oversold levels. A security would be deemed oversold when the CCI dips below -100 and overbought when it exceeds +100. From oversold levels, a buy signal might be given when the CCI moves back above -100. From overbought levels, a sell signal might be given when the CCI moved back below +100.

As with most oscillators, divergences can also be applied to increase the robustness of signals. A positive divergence below -100 would increase the robustness of a signal based on a move back above -100. A negative divergence above +100 would increase the robustness of a signal based on a move back below +100.

Trend line breaks can be used to generate signals. Trend lines can be drawn connecting the peaks and troughs. From oversold levels, an advance above -100 and trend line breakout could be considered bullish. From overbought levels, a decline below +100 and a trend line break could be considered bearish.

Traders and investors use the CCI to help identify price reversals, price extremes and trend strength. As with most indicators, the CCI should be used in conjunction with other aspects of technical analysis. CCI fits into the momentum category of oscillators. In addition to momentum, volume indicators and the price chart may also influence a technical assessment.

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Source: www.stockcharts.com

The Richest Woman in Asia Passed Away

2007-04-04T20:43:00.000-07:00

The title has certain logic error--the richest people never dies. Once the former richest one passed away, the second is promoted to the No.1 position.

Nina Wang, the chairlady of Chinachem Group, left her net worth of $4,200,000,000, and died of unspecific illness on April 3rd, 2007.

Nina Wang was born in my hometown, Shanghai, in 1937. Nina Wang married Teddy Wang, the founder of Chinachem Group, and immigrated to Hong Kong, where eventually their business becomes one of Hong Kong's largest and most powerful companies based on a lucrative pharmaceutical division.

Teddy Wang was kidnapped twice, and disappeared in the second kidnap. He was announced dead in 1999. After that, Nina Wang got the crown of Chairlady. Teddy's fater decided to battle with her for the wealth his son left. However, Nina Wang won the battle.

Nina Wang is famous for her pigtails and traditional Chinese dresses. She is titled the richest woman and the 35th richest person in Asia.

Beat the Market

2007-04-03T06:40:00.000-07:00

The fundamental theory tells us that, present stock price is valued by the expected dividends and investors' expected return. The word need to be emphasized is "expected", which implies "future." In another words, we run risk to invest future assets, and get profit from the difference between your today's investment and tomorrow's payoff.

In an ideal perfect efficient market, technique analysis on historical data of stocks is absolute waste of time. Any stock analyst does not have power of beating the market. The market price of a stock randomly walks. No one can predict the future price. So essentially, any so-called "targeted price" does not have any value--just a guess, unless, someone breaks certain security laws obtaining inside information.

But the problem is, does efficient market exist? Probably not. Any market is not efficient--not anyone is equally informed about the future performance of his/her investment project, i.e. the assumption of "random walk" theory breaks. Therefore, technique analysis is still useful, to some extend.

In the following days, I will post some articles regarding the data analysis and some important stock indexes.

Good Luck, My Overseas Warriors!

2006-12-20T01:17:00.000-08:00

Baidu, Chinese version Google, succeeded to grab online searching and ad business from Google, Yahoo! and MSN in China. Recently, Baidu ambitiously plans to "invade" Japanese online business, which is currently dominated by Google and Yahoo!. It seems Baidu is learning his first foreign language--after being world NO. 1 Chinese search engine, he is ready to provide Japanese searching services. Will Baidu be a lucky dog again?

Chairman of Baidu, R obin Li, is very confident about their future in Japan. "We know very well about our competitors. We are confident to win in the next battle." But the next round fright is not a local game, it is a international competition: What is Japanese preference? What is the business rules in Japan? Does search engine just mean "searching in Japanese"? How does tensive Sino-Japan relationship affect Chinese companies? (Think about how communism treated SKII in Shanghai.) So many crucial questions in front of Robin Li.

Although the answer about Baidu's future cannot be found at Baidu.com, lots of news that China's local companies succeeded to dampen foreign market players can be easily reached in 0.0001 second via Baidu. Tuesday, I sold short 1,000 shares of EBAY, because in Monday's midnight, I got the news that eBay in China split on joint venture with TOM Online, a Hongkong based internet company. TOM Online controls 51% shares, and eBay takes the rest. Why does the online trade giant fail in China? eBay claims that it is largely because of China's poor credit system, which does not work well with its advanced Paypal system. Probably it is true, standing on the side of eBay. But ironically, China's online trade business does not show any trace of falling down--inefficient payment methods do not lower people's consumption confidence. Actually, eBay gave in, and lost the game with local companies, such as dangdang.com, and alibaba.com. In the early year when eBay arrived in China, eBay wanted to merge with dangdang.com. But Mrs. President of dangdang.com said, "No. We can take the whole stake of China's online business!" It sounded ridiculous to challenge eBay at that time. But dangdang.com just make it.

In general, China's companies still have a long, and tough way to go, especially when they are involving more and more with global market. Baidu, as one of the ancestors of China's overseas worrior, I just want to sincerely say, Good Luck!

MicroEconomy Lecture Podcast

2006-12-08T22:16:00.000-08:00

Lecture Podcast
Title: Microeconomic Analysis
From: University of California, Berkeley
Download: Click Here

Playstation 3 VS. Wii

2006-11-12T22:37:00.000-08:00

Expecting great gift demand for children on X'mas, both Sony and Nintendo launched their new generation game systems: Playstation 3 and Wii respectively, after Microsoft Xbox 360.

The competition is evitable. Here is a funny commercial ad which compares these two systems:

Who will win the game? The market will tell us the result. Customers are the judgers of companies products. Statistics shows that, most Wii players not traditional or professional players. It seems this innovation attracts people who just like to try something new. Although Playstation 3 so far are not available on the market, many people already made reservation online, such as amazon.com several months ago. In the other words, Playstation 3 might hold a long demand, but the demand of Wii would die out once people felt tired of it. From economic view, professional consumers' interests last longer than amateurs'. But Nintendo does not think so. They are very confident about Wii, and ambitiously plan to increase supply not only in American market, but worldwide markets as well
Their confidence sounds plausible, because Wii is much cheaper than Playstation 3. The Playstation 3 with 60G costs almost $600. But Wii is as affordable as $250. Moreover, Wii provide players a new playing methods in which players are reallying "doing" something, but not just skill-required finger movements. But some critics commen that their arms feel sour after game. Well, probably, you play too hard.

Another rumor related these two systems is that, Wii uses the same hardware as Xbox 360. This rumor has been clearfied--Wii is absolutely different from Xbox 360.

It is definitely very interesting to revise the competition later.

2006-11-09T07:18:00.000-08:00

YoungBman
as you can guess, simply stands for "Young Business Man". The purpose of creating this site is collecting news on business, which could be very general--national economy, or very specific--certain issues regarding firms' behavior.
I am a Economics major undergraduate in University of Michigan at Ann Arbor. I am senior level, and plan to career in buiz field, especially interested in finance.

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All the words on my blogger are based on personal interests, thoughts, and comments.

YoungBman

【郎咸平】 别学美国征房产税

M0, M1, M2

Chinese IPO May Be Largest in History

By DINNY MCMAHON And ALISON TUDOR

Editors' Deep Dive: High Expectations for China's Banks

SCMP.COM

Agricultural Bank of China Seen as Big Future Winner

DOW JONES CHINESE FINANCIAL WIRE

Bank of China to Raise Fresh Funds

BANKER MIDDLE EAST

The Great Call of China

Motley Crew

Ahead of the Bell. Disappointing!

Developping Story: U.S Payroll Directed the Market to South

Free Data Source. Watch Out!

RMB

Euro Volatility Signals Weakness as Confidence Falls

China consumer prices up 3.1%, breaching Beijing's target

How to handle China's property market

More money

On the downside

Dissecting Declarations, Ex-Dividends And Record Dates

China's mining sector shares 'oversold'

Bear market rallies elusive

Construction ahead

Concerns linger for steel

FSA Hands J.P. Morgan Record Fine

Editors' Deep Dive: International FinReg Watch

FINANCIAL NEWS

Differing Views on Regulation

THE GUARDIAN

FSA Warns London Firms

DOW JONES INTERNATIONAL NEWS

Trichet Hits Back at Critics

World Stock Exchanges

地产政策治标不治本

China Posts 11.9% Growth, but Rebound Brings Risks

Obama urges China’s leader on currency

China's Tencent to Buy Stake in Russia's DST

海派清口侃经济

周立波笑侃大上海，那我今天也来随便侃侃，侃到哪，是哪。

Getting Richer

China's Export Growth Unexpectedly Accelerates to 28%

UIT

Where Is Sam Going?

Nintendo Rocks

Steven Jobs Is Too Slow

a Guide to U.S. Newspapers

China's New Culture of Cool

Expense on Food

Innovation vs Beautification

Behind the Collapse

The Central Power

Beat the Market---ATR

Beat the Market---ADX

A Big Deal in Germany

How Does Stock Market Change Chinese's Life?

Ready to Shake the World

Is the Ice Melting?

What Determines Our Wealth?

Economics of Happiness

Time to Cool Down

Is it on fire?

Beat the Market---OBV

Beat the Market---Williams %R

Beat the Market---RSI

Overbought/Oversold

Divergences

Centerline Crossover

Beat the Market--CCI

The Richest Woman in Asia Passed Away

Beat the Market

Good Luck, My Overseas Warriors!

MicroEconomy Lecture Podcast

Playstation 3 VS. Wii

【郎咸平】别学美国征房产税